Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 2026 population decline at 61%, driven by Statistics Canada's March 18 preliminary estimates showing Canada's population fell 103,504 (-0.2%) to 41,472,081 on January 1, 2026—the first year-over-year quarterly drop on record since Confederation. This stems from sharp reductions in non-permanent residents, including temporary workers and students, following the federal government's November 2025 Immigration Levels Plan capping new temporary arrivals at 385,000 for 2026, down over 40% from 2025 peaks. The Parliamentary Budget Officer projected zero growth for the year on February 26, amid sustained low permanent resident targets of 380,000. Upcoming Q2 estimates in June could shift odds if inflows rebound unexpectedly.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUp
NOWE
NOWE
Apr 30, 2027
Up
NOWE
NOWE
Apr 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 2026 population decline at 61%, driven by Statistics Canada's March 18 preliminary estimates showing Canada's population fell 103,504 (-0.2%) to 41,472,081 on January 1, 2026—the first year-over-year quarterly drop on record since Confederation. This stems from sharp reductions in non-permanent residents, including temporary workers and students, following the federal government's November 2025 Immigration Levels Plan capping new temporary arrivals at 385,000 for 2026, down over 40% from 2025 peaks. The Parliamentary Budget Officer projected zero growth for the year on February 26, amid sustained low permanent resident targets of 380,000. Upcoming Q2 estimates in June could shift odds if inflows rebound unexpectedly.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,488Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 2026 population decline at 61%, driven by Statistics Canada's March 18 preliminary estimates showing Canada's population fell 103,504 (-0.2%) to 41,472,081 on January 1, 2026—the first year-over-year quarterly drop on record since Confederation. This stems from sharp reductions in non-permanent residents, including temporary workers and students, following the federal government's November 2025 Immigration Levels Plan capping new temporary arrivals at 385,000 for 2026, down over 40% from 2025 peaks. The Parliamentary Budget Officer projected zero growth for the year on February 26, amid sustained low permanent resident targets of 380,000. Upcoming Q2 estimates in June could shift odds if inflows rebound unexpectedly.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$1,488Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 2026 population decline at 61%, driven by Statistics Canada's March 18 preliminary estimates showing Canada's population fell 103,504 (-0.2%) to 41,472,081 on January 1, 2026—the first year-over-year quarterly drop on record since Confederation. This stems from sharp reductions in non-permanent residents, including temporary workers and students, following the federal government's November 2025 Immigration Levels Plan capping new temporary arrivals at 385,000 for 2026, down over 40% from 2025 peaks. The Parliamentary Budget Officer projected zero growth for the year on February 26, amid sustained low permanent resident targets of 380,000. Upcoming Q2 estimates in June could shift odds if inflows rebound unexpectedly.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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