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Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

icon for Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 25.1%

Siga Batista 6.6%

Fernando Dias da Costa 3.1%

José Mário Vaz 2.8%

Polymarket

$336,982 Wol.

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 25.1%

Siga Batista 6.6%

Fernando Dias da Costa 3.1%

José Mário Vaz 2.8%

Polymarket

$336,982 Wol.

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$90,589 Wol.

14%

Siga Batista

$24,522 Wol.

7%

Fernando Dias da Costa

$57,725 Wol.

16%

José Mário Vaz

$22,281 Wol.

3%

Baciro Djá

$14,532 Wol.

3%

João de Deus Mendes

$17,755 Wol.

3%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$19,458 Wol.

3%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$18,784 Wol.

3%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$19,952 Wol.

2%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$18,350 Wol.

2%

João Bernardo Vieira

$16,799 Wol.

2%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$16,236 Wol.

1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Guinea-Bissau’s presidential race remains fragmented ahead of the December 6 general election, with no candidate exceeding 16 percent in trader pricing amid a crowded field that includes former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló, Fernando Dias da Costa, and more than a dozen others. The contest follows the November 2025 coup that ousted Embaló after disputed voting, installing a military-led transitional government under Horta Inta-A to oversee the one-year transition. An August 30 constitutional referendum on expanding executive authority adds near-term uncertainty that could reshape candidate strategies and institutional rules before polling. Historical patterns of post-election disputes, military interventions, and coalition fragility sustain the tight spread, while potential separation hinges on candidate withdrawals, alliance formations, or shifts in junta positioning that consolidate support ahead of the vote.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Wolumen
$336,982
Data zakończenia
Nov 23, 2025
Rynek otwarty
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Guinea-Bissau’s presidential race remains fragmented ahead of the December 6 general election, with no candidate exceeding 16 percent in trader pricing amid a crowded field that includes former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló, Fernando Dias da Costa, and more than a dozen others. The contest follows the November 2025 coup that ousted Embaló after disputed voting, installing a military-led transitional government under Horta Inta-A to oversee the one-year transition. An August 30 constitutional referendum on expanding executive authority adds near-term uncertainty that could reshape candidate strategies and institutional rules before polling. Historical patterns of post-election disputes, military interventions, and coalition fragility sustain the tight spread, while potential separation hinges on candidate withdrawals, alliance formations, or shifts in junta positioning that consolidate support ahead of the vote.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Wolumen
$336,982
Data zakończenia
Nov 23, 2025
Rynek otwarty
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

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Tak

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Często zadawane pytania

"Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 12 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Fernando Dias da Costa" z 16%, za nim "Umaro Sissoco Embaló" z 14%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 16¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 16% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" wygenerował $337K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Nov 6, 2025. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election", przeglądaj 12 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" jest "Fernando Dias da Costa" z 16%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 16% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Umaro Sissoco Embaló" z 14%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.