Market participants have overwhelmingly converged on 32°C as the highest temperature recorded in Lagos on May 15, reflected in its near-certain 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and regional monitoring stations show daytime highs reached exactly this threshold under stable atmospheric conditions typical of the early rainy season transition, with no model runs or on-site data indicating excursions into the 33°C range. This outcome aligns with long-term climatological baselines for mid-May in the coastal Lagos area, where mean maximum temperatures hover near 31–32°C absent unusual heat advection. Minor post-event quality-control revisions remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence from any authoritative source, leaving the consensus firmly anchored.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Lagos on May 15?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 15?
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$37,402 Wol.
$37,402 Wol.
May 15, 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$37,402 Wol.
$37,402 Wol.
May 15, 2026
26°C or below
$3,030 Wol.
No
27°C
$2,263 Wol.
No
28°C
$2,146 Wol.
No
29°C
$2,308 Wol.
No
30°C
$1,976 Wol.
No
31°C
$3,346 Wol.
No
32°C
$6,493 Wol.
Yes
33°C
$4,075 Wol.
No
34°C
$3,537 Wol.
No
35°C
$2,458 Wol.
No
36°C or higher
$5,769 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market participants have overwhelmingly converged on 32°C as the highest temperature recorded in Lagos on May 15, reflected in its near-certain 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and regional monitoring stations show daytime highs reached exactly this threshold under stable atmospheric conditions typical of the early rainy season transition, with no model runs or on-site data indicating excursions into the 33°C range. This outcome aligns with long-term climatological baselines for mid-May in the coastal Lagos area, where mean maximum temperatures hover near 31–32°C absent unusual heat advection. Minor post-event quality-control revisions remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence from any authoritative source, leaving the consensus firmly anchored.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 13, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
Wolumen
$37,402Data zakończenia
May 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 13, 2026, 12:16 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market participants have overwhelmingly converged on 32°C as the highest temperature recorded in Lagos on May 15, reflected in its near-certain 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and regional monitoring stations show daytime highs reached exactly this threshold under stable atmospheric conditions typical of the early rainy season transition, with no model runs or on-site data indicating excursions into the 33°C range. This outcome aligns with long-term climatological baselines for mid-May in the coastal Lagos area, where mean maximum temperatures hover near 31–32°C absent unusual heat advection. Minor post-event quality-control revisions remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence from any authoritative source, leaving the consensus firmly anchored.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$37,402Data zakończenia
May 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 13, 2026, 12:16 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
Market participants have overwhelmingly converged on 32°C as the highest temperature recorded in Lagos on May 15, reflected in its near-certain 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and regional monitoring stations show daytime highs reached exactly this threshold under stable atmospheric conditions typical of the early rainy season transition, with no model runs or on-site data indicating excursions into the 33°C range. This outcome aligns with long-term climatological baselines for mid-May in the coastal Lagos area, where mean maximum temperatures hover near 31–32°C absent unusual heat advection. Minor post-event quality-control revisions remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence from any authoritative source, leaving the consensus firmly anchored.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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