Recent forecast guidance from European and global models points to a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, favoring clear skies and light winds that should allow strong daytime solar heating in Madrid on May 19. This setup supports peak temperatures clustering around 26–28 °C, consistent with the market’s leading outcomes. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from minor differences in low-level moisture and afternoon cloud development, which could trim or boost the maximum by 1–2 °C. Historical May climatology shows typical highs near 22–24 °C, so the current bullish tilt reflects the expected departure from average under the anticyclonic pattern. Updated model runs later today will likely tighten the range ahead of resolution.