Current forecast consensus from AEMET and European models positions Madrid's May 17 maximum near 22–23 °C, aligning with the market's leading 40 % and 24.5 % implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. Clear skies and light northerly flow under a stable spring anticyclone are expected to permit daytime heating without the stronger advection or cloud cover that would cap readings below 21 °C or push them toward 24 °C. Recent model runs show only modest spread, keeping 20 °C and 24 °C as secondary possibilities at 6 % and 10 %. With resolution determined by official observations at Madrid-Barajas Airport on the Saffir-Simpson-equivalent temperature scale used by Spanish authorities, traders are weighting the narrow 21–23 °C window most heavily as the final 24-hour forecast window approaches.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on May 17?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 17?
22°C 40%
21°C 23%
23°C 22%
24°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
May 17, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
6%
21°C
23%
22°C
40%
23°C
22%
24°C
10%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 40%
21°C 23%
23°C 22%
24°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
May 17, 2026
17°C or below
$1,103 Wol.
<1%
18°C
$424 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$500 Wol.
1%
20°C
$510 Wol.
6%
21°C
$1,184 Wol.
23%
22°C
$858 Wol.
40%
23°C
$512 Wol.
22%
24°C
$378 Wol.
10%
25°C
$396 Wol.
1%
26°C
$218 Wol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$156 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast consensus from AEMET and European models positions Madrid's May 17 maximum near 22–23 °C, aligning with the market's leading 40 % and 24.5 % implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. Clear skies and light northerly flow under a stable spring anticyclone are expected to permit daytime heating without the stronger advection or cloud cover that would cap readings below 21 °C or push them toward 24 °C. Recent model runs show only modest spread, keeping 20 °C and 24 °C as secondary possibilities at 6 % and 10 %. With resolution determined by official observations at Madrid-Barajas Airport on the Saffir-Simpson-equivalent temperature scale used by Spanish authorities, traders are weighting the narrow 21–23 °C window most heavily as the final 24-hour forecast window approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Wolumen
$6,227Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast consensus from AEMET and European models positions Madrid's May 17 maximum near 22–23 °C, aligning with the market's leading 40 % and 24.5 % implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. Clear skies and light northerly flow under a stable spring anticyclone are expected to permit daytime heating without the stronger advection or cloud cover that would cap readings below 21 °C or push them toward 24 °C. Recent model runs show only modest spread, keeping 20 °C and 24 °C as secondary possibilities at 6 % and 10 %. With resolution determined by official observations at Madrid-Barajas Airport on the Saffir-Simpson-equivalent temperature scale used by Spanish authorities, traders are weighting the narrow 21–23 °C window most heavily as the final 24-hour forecast window approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$6,227Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDCurrent forecast consensus from AEMET and European models positions Madrid's May 17 maximum near 22–23 °C, aligning with the market's leading 40 % and 24.5 % implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. Clear skies and light northerly flow under a stable spring anticyclone are expected to permit daytime heating without the stronger advection or cloud cover that would cap readings below 21 °C or push them toward 24 °C. Recent model runs show only modest spread, keeping 20 °C and 24 °C as secondary possibilities at 6 % and 10 %. With resolution determined by official observations at Madrid-Barajas Airport on the Saffir-Simpson-equivalent temperature scale used by Spanish authorities, traders are weighting the narrow 21–23 °C window most heavily as the final 24-hour forecast window approaches.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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