The overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for a 36°C high in Manila on May 17 stems from the latest PAGASA forecast models projecting peak daytime temperatures in that narrow range under persistent high-pressure conditions and clear skies typical of the May dry season. Current observational data from Manila weather stations show surface temperatures tracking closely with historical climatological averages of 34–36°C, with no recent model runs indicating intensification from urban heat effects or altered wind patterns that would reach 37°C or higher. Traders are positioning based on this consensus, while noting that an unforecast afternoon convective cell could still cap the daily maximum below the leading outcome before official observations finalize.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Manila on May 17?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 17?
36°C 99.8%
37°C <1%
39°C or higher <1%
29°C or below <1%
$29,156 Wol.
$29,156 Wol.
May 17, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
100%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
36°C 99.8%
37°C <1%
39°C or higher <1%
29°C or below <1%
$29,156 Wol.
$29,156 Wol.
May 17, 2026
29°C or below
$2,561 Wol.
<1%
30°C
$1,238 Wol.
<1%
31°C
$2,726 Wol.
<1%
32°C
$2,166 Wol.
<1%
33°C
$3,443 Wol.
<1%
34°C
$2,326 Wol.
<1%
35°C
$3,551 Wol.
<1%
36°C
$6,132 Wol.
100%
37°C
$2,558 Wol.
<1%
38°C
$1,559 Wol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$895 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for a 36°C high in Manila on May 17 stems from the latest PAGASA forecast models projecting peak daytime temperatures in that narrow range under persistent high-pressure conditions and clear skies typical of the May dry season. Current observational data from Manila weather stations show surface temperatures tracking closely with historical climatological averages of 34–36°C, with no recent model runs indicating intensification from urban heat effects or altered wind patterns that would reach 37°C or higher. Traders are positioning based on this consensus, while noting that an unforecast afternoon convective cell could still cap the daily maximum below the leading outcome before official observations finalize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Wolumen
$29,156Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for a 36°C high in Manila on May 17 stems from the latest PAGASA forecast models projecting peak daytime temperatures in that narrow range under persistent high-pressure conditions and clear skies typical of the May dry season. Current observational data from Manila weather stations show surface temperatures tracking closely with historical climatological averages of 34–36°C, with no recent model runs indicating intensification from urban heat effects or altered wind patterns that would reach 37°C or higher. Traders are positioning based on this consensus, while noting that an unforecast afternoon convective cell could still cap the daily maximum below the leading outcome before official observations finalize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$29,156Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLThe overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for a 36°C high in Manila on May 17 stems from the latest PAGASA forecast models projecting peak daytime temperatures in that narrow range under persistent high-pressure conditions and clear skies typical of the May dry season. Current observational data from Manila weather stations show surface temperatures tracking closely with historical climatological averages of 34–36°C, with no recent model runs indicating intensification from urban heat effects or altered wind patterns that would reach 37°C or higher. Traders are positioning based on this consensus, while noting that an unforecast afternoon convective cell could still cap the daily maximum below the leading outcome before official observations finalize.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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