Recent U.S. CPI data show reacceleration through mid-2026, with the August print at 3.4% year-over-year following a May peak near 4.2%, driven by energy prices and services inflation. The September 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections places median PCE inflation at 3.7% for the year, with core PCE at 3.4%, reflecting upward revisions from prior meetings amid persistent price pressures. Market-implied odds incorporate these releases alongside the Fed’s September rate hike and labor-market stability near 4.1% unemployment. Key near-term catalysts include the October 14 CPI report and subsequent data that could shift consensus on the 2026 peak.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFederal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% to combat inflation
Above 8% plunges to 3%35%
On September 16, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the first hike since 2023, signaling a more aggressive stance to reduce inflation, which influenced market pricing for inflation above 8%.
Federal Reserve raises interest rates to 3.75%-4.00% to combat elevated inflation
Above 4.5% jumps to 19%6%
The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, the first hike since 2023, citing persistently high inflation and resilient economic activity. This hawkish move caused a sharp increase in inflation market prices, especially for the "Above 4.5%" outcome.
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