Strong consensus around positive 2026 U.S. GDP growth, with major forecasters including the CBO projecting 2.2% real expansion and others citing 2.0-2.3% gains, underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction. Recent resilience in Q1 2026 data showing 1.6% annualized growth, combined with investment-led momentum from AI-driven capex, fiscal tailwinds, and a stable labor market near 4.5-4.6% unemployment, reinforces trader expectations of continued expansion above potential output. Headwinds such as tariffs and elevated energy prices have so far been absorbed without derailing activity. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include severe geopolitical escalation triggering sustained supply shocks or abrupt policy reversals that sharply tighten financial conditions beyond current pricing in Treasury yields and Fed funds expectations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
4% szansa
$32,234 Wol.
$32,234 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
4% szansa
$32,234 Wol.
$32,234 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus around positive 2026 U.S. GDP growth, with major forecasters including the CBO projecting 2.2% real expansion and others citing 2.0-2.3% gains, underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction. Recent resilience in Q1 2026 data showing 1.6% annualized growth, combined with investment-led momentum from AI-driven capex, fiscal tailwinds, and a stable labor market near 4.5-4.6% unemployment, reinforces trader expectations of continued expansion above potential output. Headwinds such as tariffs and elevated energy prices have so far been absorbed without derailing activity. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include severe geopolitical escalation triggering sustained supply shocks or abrupt policy reversals that sharply tighten financial conditions beyond current pricing in Treasury yields and Fed funds expectations.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$32,234Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus around positive 2026 U.S. GDP growth, with major forecasters including the CBO projecting 2.2% real expansion and others citing 2.0-2.3% gains, underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction. Recent resilience in Q1 2026 data showing 1.6% annualized growth, combined with investment-led momentum from AI-driven capex, fiscal tailwinds, and a stable labor market near 4.5-4.6% unemployment, reinforces trader expectations of continued expansion above potential output. Headwinds such as tariffs and elevated energy prices have so far been absorbed without derailing activity. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include severe geopolitical escalation triggering sustained supply shocks or abrupt policy reversals that sharply tighten financial conditions beyond current pricing in Treasury yields and Fed funds expectations.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Wolumen
$32,234Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong consensus around positive 2026 U.S. GDP growth, with major forecasters including the CBO projecting 2.2% real expansion and others citing 2.0-2.3% gains, underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction. Recent resilience in Q1 2026 data showing 1.6% annualized growth, combined with investment-led momentum from AI-driven capex, fiscal tailwinds, and a stable labor market near 4.5-4.6% unemployment, reinforces trader expectations of continued expansion above potential output. Headwinds such as tariffs and elevated energy prices have so far been absorbed without derailing activity. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include severe geopolitical escalation triggering sustained supply shocks or abrupt policy reversals that sharply tighten financial conditions beyond current pricing in Treasury yields and Fed funds expectations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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