Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leads trader consensus at 77% for Quebec’s next premier because the Parti Québécois maintains a narrow but durable edge in late-campaign polling at around 28-29%, with concentrated francophone support translating into favorable seat projections under first-past-the-post rules ahead of the October 5 election. Christine Fréchette trails at 18% as Coalition Avenir Québec leader and incumbent, reflecting recent softening in party support amid economic pressures and a shift toward change, though minority-government scenarios could still allow her to retain the role through confidence votes. Charles Milliard at under 4% benefits from Liberal rebound potential in Montreal-area ridings, while the remaining candidates register negligible probabilities consistent with limited projected seat totals. Upcoming debates and final poll movements remain the primary near-term variables.