Keiko Fujimori maintains a razor-thin lead over Roberto Sánchez in Peru’s June 7 runoff, with over 98% of ballots counted and the gap hovering near 18,000 votes as of mid-June. Trader consensus on a 0–4% Fujimori margin reflects the contest’s persistent statistical tie, driven by regional divides—Fujimori dominating Lima and coastal urban areas while Sánchez holds rural Andean strongholds—plus late-counting overseas and provincial ballots. Pre-runoff polls showed the candidates within a few points, exit surveys confirmed the deadlock, and slow ONPE tabulation with calls for recounts has kept the outcome within a narrow band. A wider margin would require an unexpected surge in remaining votes or major irregularities, both viewed as low-probability by markets given historical patterns and current tallies.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPeru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory?
Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory?
Fujimori 0–4% 98.3%
Sánchez 0–4% <1%
Fujimori 12%+ <1%
Fujimori 8–12% <1%
$1,048,827 Wol.
$1,048,827 Wol.
Jun 7, 2026
Fujimori 12%+
<1%
Fujimori 8–12%
<1%
Fujimori 4–8%
<1%
Fujimori 0–4%
98%
Sánchez 0–4%
1%
Sánchez 4–8%
<1%
Sánchez 8–12%
<1%
Sánchez 12%+
<1%
Fujimori 0–4% 98.3%
Sánchez 0–4% <1%
Fujimori 12%+ <1%
Fujimori 8–12% <1%
$1,048,827 Wol.
$1,048,827 Wol.
Jun 7, 2026
Fujimori 12%+
$70,174 Wol.
<1%
Fujimori 8–12%
$60,207 Wol.
<1%
Fujimori 4–8%
$153,459 Wol.
<1%
Fujimori 0–4%
$297,491 Wol.
98%
Sánchez 0–4%
$313,159 Wol.
1%
Sánchez 4–8%
$84,864 Wol.
<1%
Sánchez 8–12%
$38,513 Wol.
<1%
Sánchez 12%+
$30,961 Wol.
<1%
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Keiko Fujimori maintains a razor-thin lead over Roberto Sánchez in Peru’s June 7 runoff, with over 98% of ballots counted and the gap hovering near 18,000 votes as of mid-June. Trader consensus on a 0–4% Fujimori margin reflects the contest’s persistent statistical tie, driven by regional divides—Fujimori dominating Lima and coastal urban areas while Sánchez holds rural Andean strongholds—plus late-counting overseas and provincial ballots. Pre-runoff polls showed the candidates within a few points, exit surveys confirmed the deadlock, and slow ONPE tabulation with calls for recounts has kept the outcome within a narrow band. A wider margin would require an unexpected surge in remaining votes or major irregularities, both viewed as low-probability by markets given historical patterns and current tallies.
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Rynek otwarty: May 21, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,048,827Data zakończenia
Jun 7, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 21, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Keiko Fujimori maintains a razor-thin lead over Roberto Sánchez in Peru’s June 7 runoff, with over 98% of ballots counted and the gap hovering near 18,000 votes as of mid-June. Trader consensus on a 0–4% Fujimori margin reflects the contest’s persistent statistical tie, driven by regional divides—Fujimori dominating Lima and coastal urban areas while Sánchez holds rural Andean strongholds—plus late-counting overseas and provincial ballots. Pre-runoff polls showed the candidates within a few points, exit surveys confirmed the deadlock, and slow ONPE tabulation with calls for recounts has kept the outcome within a narrow band. A wider margin would require an unexpected surge in remaining votes or major irregularities, both viewed as low-probability by markets given historical patterns and current tallies.
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Wolumen
$1,048,827Data zakończenia
Jun 7, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 21, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Keiko Fujimori maintains a razor-thin lead over Roberto Sánchez in Peru’s June 7 runoff, with over 98% of ballots counted and the gap hovering near 18,000 votes as of mid-June. Trader consensus on a 0–4% Fujimori margin reflects the contest’s persistent statistical tie, driven by regional divides—Fujimori dominating Lima and coastal urban areas while Sánchez holds rural Andean strongholds—plus late-counting overseas and provincial ballots. Pre-runoff polls showed the candidates within a few points, exit surveys confirmed the deadlock, and slow ONPE tabulation with calls for recounts has kept the outcome within a narrow band. A wider margin would require an unexpected surge in remaining votes or major irregularities, both viewed as low-probability by markets given historical patterns and current tallies.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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