Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election produced a narrow opposition lead that has held through nearly all ballots counted, with the center-left bloc of Social Democrats, Left, Greens, and Centre projected at 175–176 seats against 173–174 for the Tidö parties. SVT’s final projections on September 16 eliminated any realistic path for the governing Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats, and Liberals to close the gap during the remaining supplementary count of advance and overseas votes. Traders have priced this outcome at over 96 percent for an opposition margin of three to four seats because the vote differential now exceeds 26,000 ballots with fewer than 1 percent of districts outstanding. A reversal would require an unprecedented swing in the last ballots, an outcome forecasters deem statistically remote. Final certification by county boards remains the only procedural step that could still alter the seat totals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoOpposition by 3–4 96.8%
Opposition by 1–2 2.5%
Tidö by 1–2 <1%
Opposition by 5–6 <1%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
Opposition by 7+
<1%
Opposition by 5–6
<1%
Opposition by 3–4
97%
Opposition by 1–2
3%
Tidö by 1–2
1%
Tidö by 3–4
<1%
Tidö by 5+
<1%
Opposition by 3–4 96.8%
Opposition by 1–2 2.5%
Tidö by 1–2 <1%
Opposition by 5–6 <1%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
Opposition by 7+
$710 Wol.
<1%
Opposition by 5–6
$205 Wol.
<1%
Opposition by 3–4
$2,289 Wol.
97%
Opposition by 1–2
$1,782 Wol.
3%
Tidö by 1–2
$838 Wol.
1%
Tidö by 3–4
$426 Wol.
<1%
Tidö by 5+
$29 Wol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election produced a narrow opposition lead that has held through nearly all ballots counted, with the center-left bloc of Social Democrats, Left, Greens, and Centre projected at 175–176 seats against 173–174 for the Tidö parties. SVT’s final projections on September 16 eliminated any realistic path for the governing Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats, and Liberals to close the gap during the remaining supplementary count of advance and overseas votes. Traders have priced this outcome at over 96 percent for an opposition margin of three to four seats because the vote differential now exceeds 26,000 ballots with fewer than 1 percent of districts outstanding. A reversal would require an unprecedented swing in the last ballots, an outcome forecasters deem statistically remote. Final certification by county boards remains the only procedural step that could still alter the seat totals.
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Rynek otwarty: Sep 16, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Wolumen
$6,279Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 16, 2026, 12:25 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election produced a narrow opposition lead that has held through nearly all ballots counted, with the center-left bloc of Social Democrats, Left, Greens, and Centre projected at 175–176 seats against 173–174 for the Tidö parties. SVT’s final projections on September 16 eliminated any realistic path for the governing Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats, and Liberals to close the gap during the remaining supplementary count of advance and overseas votes. Traders have priced this outcome at over 96 percent for an opposition margin of three to four seats because the vote differential now exceeds 26,000 ballots with fewer than 1 percent of districts outstanding. A reversal would require an unprecedented swing in the last ballots, an outcome forecasters deem statistically remote. Final certification by county boards remains the only procedural step that could still alter the seat totals.
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Wolumen
$6,279Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 16, 2026, 12:25 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election produced a narrow opposition lead that has held through nearly all ballots counted, with the center-left bloc of Social Democrats, Left, Greens, and Centre projected at 175–176 seats against 173–174 for the Tidö parties. SVT’s final projections on September 16 eliminated any realistic path for the governing Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats, and Liberals to close the gap during the remaining supplementary count of advance and overseas votes. Traders have priced this outcome at over 96 percent for an opposition margin of three to four seats because the vote differential now exceeds 26,000 ballots with fewer than 1 percent of districts outstanding. A reversal would require an unprecedented swing in the last ballots, an outcome forecasters deem statistically remote. Final certification by county boards remains the only procedural step that could still alter the seat totals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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