Recent energy price surges stemming from the Middle East conflict have lifted UK CPI to 3.3% in March 2026, pushing market-implied odds toward the 4.0–4.4% and 4.5%+ bins for annual inflation in 2026. The Bank of England’s April Monetary Policy Report outlines three scenarios where inflation climbs above 3.5% by year-end under moderate oil-price assumptions and exceeds 6% in the high-shock case, reflecting limited labor-market slack that tempers second-round wage effects. Traders are weighing these paths against the possibility of faster de-escalation that could keep the average closer to 3.5%, with the narrow 4.5-point spread between the two leading outcomes underscoring uncertainty over how persistently the energy shock will transmit through to 2026 averages.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoU.K. Annual Inflation 2026
U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
4.0-4.4% 28%
3.5–3.9% 25%
4.5%+ 23%
1.5–1.9% 4.8%
NOWE
NOWE
Jan 20, 2027
<1.0%
1%
1.0–1.4%
5%
1.5–1.9%
5%
2.0–2.4%
11%
2.5–2.9%
16%
3.5–3.9%
25%
4.0-4.4%
28%
4.5%+
36%
4.0-4.4% 28%
3.5–3.9% 25%
4.5%+ 23%
1.5–1.9% 4.8%
NOWE
NOWE
Jan 20, 2027
<1.0%
$802 Wol.
1%
1.0–1.4%
$330 Wol.
5%
1.5–1.9%
$483 Wol.
5%
2.0–2.4%
$305 Wol.
11%
2.5–2.9%
$385 Wol.
16%
3.5–3.9%
$525 Wol.
25%
4.0-4.4%
$420 Wol.
28%
4.5%+
$1,080 Wol.
36%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarRecent energy price surges stemming from the Middle East conflict have lifted UK CPI to 3.3% in March 2026, pushing market-implied odds toward the 4.0–4.4% and 4.5%+ bins for annual inflation in 2026. The Bank of England’s April Monetary Policy Report outlines three scenarios where inflation climbs above 3.5% by year-end under moderate oil-price assumptions and exceeds 6% in the high-shock case, reflecting limited labor-market slack that tempers second-round wage effects. Traders are weighing these paths against the possibility of faster de-escalation that could keep the average closer to 3.5%, with the narrow 4.5-point spread between the two leading outcomes underscoring uncertainty over how persistently the energy shock will transmit through to 2026 averages.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Rynek otwarty: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$4,329Data zakończenia
Jan 20, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarRecent energy price surges stemming from the Middle East conflict have lifted UK CPI to 3.3% in March 2026, pushing market-implied odds toward the 4.0–4.4% and 4.5%+ bins for annual inflation in 2026. The Bank of England’s April Monetary Policy Report outlines three scenarios where inflation climbs above 3.5% by year-end under moderate oil-price assumptions and exceeds 6% in the high-shock case, reflecting limited labor-market slack that tempers second-round wage effects. Traders are weighing these paths against the possibility of faster de-escalation that could keep the average closer to 3.5%, with the narrow 4.5-point spread between the two leading outcomes underscoring uncertainty over how persistently the energy shock will transmit through to 2026 averages.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Wolumen
$4,329Data zakończenia
Jan 20, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent energy price surges stemming from the Middle East conflict have lifted UK CPI to 3.3% in March 2026, pushing market-implied odds toward the 4.0–4.4% and 4.5%+ bins for annual inflation in 2026. The Bank of England’s April Monetary Policy Report outlines three scenarios where inflation climbs above 3.5% by year-end under moderate oil-price assumptions and exceeds 6% in the high-shock case, reflecting limited labor-market slack that tempers second-round wage effects. Traders are weighing these paths against the possibility of faster de-escalation that could keep the average closer to 3.5%, with the narrow 4.5-point spread between the two leading outcomes underscoring uncertainty over how persistently the energy shock will transmit through to 2026 averages.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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