Skip to main content
icon for Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 2º lugar
Política·Brasil

Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 2º lugar

icon for Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 2º lugar
Política·Brasil

Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 2º lugar

Flávio Bolsonaro 84%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 8.1%

Renan Santos 6.0%

Ronaldo Caiado 1.1%

Polymarket

$4,607,391 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 84%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 8.1%

Renan Santos 6.0%

Ronaldo Caiado 1.1%

Polymarket

$4,607,391 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$251,942 Vol.

84%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$227,456 Vol.

8%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$1,100,443 Vol.

6%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$353,622 Vol.

1%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$299,270 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$692,351 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$133,214 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$128,809 Vol.

<1%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$104,312 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$101,410 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$62,257 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcísio de Freitas

Tarcísio de Freitas

$197,416 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$673,156 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$154,157 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$71,116 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$20,972 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$35,489 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro's status as the Liberal Party nominee and endorsed successor to his ineligible father has consolidated right-wing support, positioning him as the clear frontrunner for second place behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in first-round polling. Recent Liberal Party convention confirmation in July, alongside international endorsements, reinforced this consolidation despite earlier audio leaks and running-mate challenges. Lula maintains a consistent first-round lead near 40 percent across recent surveys, while fragmented alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in low single digits. Traders view the right-wing vote consolidation around Flávio as the dominant factor sustaining his elevated implied probability for second place ahead of the October 4 vote.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$4,607,391
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro's status as the Liberal Party nominee and endorsed successor to his ineligible father has consolidated right-wing support, positioning him as the clear frontrunner for second place behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in first-round polling. Recent Liberal Party convention confirmation in July, alongside international endorsements, reinforced this consolidation despite earlier audio leaks and running-mate challenges. Lula maintains a consistent first-round lead near 40 percent across recent surveys, while fragmented alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in low single digits. Traders view the right-wing vote consolidation around Flávio as the dominant factor sustaining his elevated implied probability for second place ahead of the October 4 vote.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$4,607,391
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Relacionado

icon for Renan Santos terminará em terceiro lugar no primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?

Renan Santos terminará em terceiro lugar no primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?

61%
Sim
icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vencerá a eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vencerá a eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?

64%
Sim
icon for Algum candidato presidencial vencerá no primeiro turno da eleição no Brasil?

Algum candidato presidencial vencerá no primeiro turno da eleição no Brasil?

11%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 2º lugar" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 84%, followed by "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 2º lugar" has generated $4.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 2º lugar," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 2º lugar" is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 2º lugar" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.