Both sides have sustained diplomatic channels to manage South China Sea frictions, including the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism meetings in March 2026 and renewed talks on an ASEAN-China Code of Conduct. These efforts, alongside high-level bilateral resets focused on communication and practical cooperation, have contained repeated gray-zone incidents such as water-cannon deployments and vessel maneuvers near Scarborough and Thitu Shoals. Philippine military modernization and U.S. alliance commitments have also raised the threshold for any direct armed clash, while neither government has signaled intent to cross into open hostilities. Traders therefore assign an 80.5 percent probability that no military clash occurs before 2027, viewing the current pattern of controlled confrontation and ongoing negotiations as the dominant near-term dynamic.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$356,802 Vol.
$356,802 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$356,802 Vol.
$356,802 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Both sides have sustained diplomatic channels to manage South China Sea frictions, including the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism meetings in March 2026 and renewed talks on an ASEAN-China Code of Conduct. These efforts, alongside high-level bilateral resets focused on communication and practical cooperation, have contained repeated gray-zone incidents such as water-cannon deployments and vessel maneuvers near Scarborough and Thitu Shoals. Philippine military modernization and U.S. alliance commitments have also raised the threshold for any direct armed clash, while neither government has signaled intent to cross into open hostilities. Traders therefore assign an 80.5 percent probability that no military clash occurs before 2027, viewing the current pattern of controlled confrontation and ongoing negotiations as the dominant near-term dynamic.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Volume
$356,802Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Both sides have sustained diplomatic channels to manage South China Sea frictions, including the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism meetings in March 2026 and renewed talks on an ASEAN-China Code of Conduct. These efforts, alongside high-level bilateral resets focused on communication and practical cooperation, have contained repeated gray-zone incidents such as water-cannon deployments and vessel maneuvers near Scarborough and Thitu Shoals. Philippine military modernization and U.S. alliance commitments have also raised the threshold for any direct armed clash, while neither government has signaled intent to cross into open hostilities. Traders therefore assign an 80.5 percent probability that no military clash occurs before 2027, viewing the current pattern of controlled confrontation and ongoing negotiations as the dominant near-term dynamic.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$356,802Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Both sides have sustained diplomatic channels to manage South China Sea frictions, including the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism meetings in March 2026 and renewed talks on an ASEAN-China Code of Conduct. These efforts, alongside high-level bilateral resets focused on communication and practical cooperation, have contained repeated gray-zone incidents such as water-cannon deployments and vessel maneuvers near Scarborough and Thitu Shoals. Philippine military modernization and U.S. alliance commitments have also raised the threshold for any direct armed clash, while neither government has signaled intent to cross into open hostilities. Traders therefore assign an 80.5 percent probability that no military clash occurs before 2027, viewing the current pattern of controlled confrontation and ongoing negotiations as the dominant near-term dynamic.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions