Taiwan maintains steady deterrence through record defense budgets exceeding NT$1 trillion for 2027 and routine Han Kuang exercises focused on rapid response and asymmetric capabilities, while Beijing sustains gray-zone pressure via daily PLA aircraft and naval detections plus expanded coast guard patrols east of the island without escalation to kinetic strikes. Recent live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait in July and continued maritime surveys reflect calibrated assertions of claims rather than preparations for imminent invasion, consistent with reduced large-scale aerial sorties compared to prior years. Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing alongside Taiwan’s emphasis on self-reliance further supports trader consensus that a full military clash remains unlikely through 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
8% chance
$3,252,553 Vol.
$3,252,553 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Sim
8% chance
$3,252,553 Vol.
$3,252,553 Vol.
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Taiwan maintains steady deterrence through record defense budgets exceeding NT$1 trillion for 2027 and routine Han Kuang exercises focused on rapid response and asymmetric capabilities, while Beijing sustains gray-zone pressure via daily PLA aircraft and naval detections plus expanded coast guard patrols east of the island without escalation to kinetic strikes. Recent live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait in July and continued maritime surveys reflect calibrated assertions of claims rather than preparations for imminent invasion, consistent with reduced large-scale aerial sorties compared to prior years. Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing alongside Taiwan’s emphasis on self-reliance further supports trader consensus that a full military clash remains unlikely through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$3,252,553Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Taiwan maintains steady deterrence through record defense budgets exceeding NT$1 trillion for 2027 and routine Han Kuang exercises focused on rapid response and asymmetric capabilities, while Beijing sustains gray-zone pressure via daily PLA aircraft and naval detections plus expanded coast guard patrols east of the island without escalation to kinetic strikes. Recent live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait in July and continued maritime surveys reflect calibrated assertions of claims rather than preparations for imminent invasion, consistent with reduced large-scale aerial sorties compared to prior years. Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing alongside Taiwan’s emphasis on self-reliance further supports trader consensus that a full military clash remains unlikely through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,252,553Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Taiwan maintains steady deterrence through record defense budgets exceeding NT$1 trillion for 2027 and routine Han Kuang exercises focused on rapid response and asymmetric capabilities, while Beijing sustains gray-zone pressure via daily PLA aircraft and naval detections plus expanded coast guard patrols east of the island without escalation to kinetic strikes. Recent live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait in July and continued maritime surveys reflect calibrated assertions of claims rather than preparations for imminent invasion, consistent with reduced large-scale aerial sorties compared to prior years. Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing alongside Taiwan’s emphasis on self-reliance further supports trader consensus that a full military clash remains unlikely through 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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