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Eleições presidenciais na Guiné-Bissau

icon for Eleições presidenciais na Guiné-Bissau

Eleições presidenciais na Guiné-Bissau

Fernando Dias da Costa 50.7%

Siga Batista 39.8%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa 4.5%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló 2.8%

Polymarket

$311,972 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa 50.7%

Siga Batista 39.8%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa 4.5%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló 2.8%

Polymarket

$311,972 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa

$47,964 Vol.

51%

Siga Batista

$21,449 Vol.

23%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$15,658 Vol.

5%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$18,181 Vol.

3%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$17,967 Vol.

2%

José Mário Vaz

$21,417 Vol.

2%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$17,560 Vol.

2%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$87,423 Vol.

1%

João Bernardo Vieira

$15,099 Vol.

1%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$18,883 Vol.

1%

João de Deus Mendes

$16,238 Vol.

1%

Baciro Djá

$14,133 Vol.

<1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).The frontrunner status of Fernando Dias da Costa in Guinea-Bissau's December 2026 presidential election reflects his leading 49.4 percent share in the annulled November 2025 vote, where he narrowly outpaced incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló before a military coup halted results and installed a transitional junta. This prior performance under the PAI-Terra Ranka alliance gives him the clearest established base in a crowded field, while independent Siga Batista has risen on momentum despite minimal prior support. The junta's decree scheduling the redo under ECOWAS pressure for constitutional order, alongside April reports of political violence, underscores transition uncertainties that sustain trader focus on these dynamics without major recent shifts altering the positioning.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$311,972
Data de Término
23 nov 2025
Mercado Aberto
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).The frontrunner status of Fernando Dias da Costa in Guinea-Bissau's December 2026 presidential election reflects his leading 49.4 percent share in the annulled November 2025 vote, where he narrowly outpaced incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló before a military coup halted results and installed a transitional junta. This prior performance under the PAI-Terra Ranka alliance gives him the clearest established base in a crowded field, while independent Siga Batista has risen on momentum despite minimal prior support. The junta's decree scheduling the redo under ECOWAS pressure for constitutional order, alongside April reports of political violence, underscores transition uncertainties that sustain trader focus on these dynamics without major recent shifts altering the positioning.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$311,972
Data de Término
23 nov 2025
Mercado Aberto
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleições presidenciais na Guiné-Bissau" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Fernando Dias da Costa" at 51%, followed by "Siga Batista" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eleições presidenciais na Guiné-Bissau" has generated $312K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 6, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eleições presidenciais na Guiné-Bissau," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleições presidenciais na Guiné-Bissau" is "Fernando Dias da Costa" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Siga Batista" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleições presidenciais na Guiné-Bissau" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.