Recent meteorological model runs from European and Russian forecasting centers indicate peak temperatures in Moscow on May 17 will most likely reach the mid-20s Celsius, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge advecting warmer continental air while allowing ample daytime solar heating under partly cloudy skies. Ensemble guidance shows minimal spread around 24–26 °C because steering winds remain light and surface moisture is moderate, limiting both strong cooling from overnight radiative losses and rapid afternoon convection. Subtle differences among the top outcomes hinge on exact timing of any weak frontal passage, local urban heat-island amplification near VDNKh, and precise boundary-layer mixing; even a one-hour shift in peak insolation or a 10 % change in cloud fraction can alter the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Updated short-range model output and official observations from Roshydromet tomorrow morning will provide the decisive data for resolution.