Recent model consensus from INMET and CPTEC points to a daytime maximum near the mid-May climatological average of 22°C for São Paulo, driven by stable high-pressure ridging, moderate southerly flow, and partial afternoon cloud cover that limits solar heating. This positioning explains the 67.3% market-implied probability for exactly 22°C, with the 33.5% chance of 23°C or higher reflecting residual uncertainty in clearing skies or brief warm advection. Historical May records show highs rarely exceeding 24°C this late in autumn, while lower outcomes remain negligible given current 10-day temperature trends and absence of cold-front intrusions. Final station readings from central São Paulo will resolve the market once peak afternoon observations are confirmed.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em São Paulo no dia 17 de maio?
Temperatura mais alta em São Paulo no dia 17 de maio?
22°C 53.8%
23°C or higher 50%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
$52,281 Vol.
$52,281 Vol.
17 mai 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
54%
23°C or higher
50%
22°C 53.8%
23°C or higher 50%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
$52,281 Vol.
$52,281 Vol.
17 mai 2026
13°C or below
$2,459 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$710 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,223 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,471 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,226 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$3,599 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,217 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$7,932 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$14,132 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$8,464 Vol.
54%
23°C or higher
$9,002 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent model consensus from INMET and CPTEC points to a daytime maximum near the mid-May climatological average of 22°C for São Paulo, driven by stable high-pressure ridging, moderate southerly flow, and partial afternoon cloud cover that limits solar heating. This positioning explains the 67.3% market-implied probability for exactly 22°C, with the 33.5% chance of 23°C or higher reflecting residual uncertainty in clearing skies or brief warm advection. Historical May records show highs rarely exceeding 24°C this late in autumn, while lower outcomes remain negligible given current 10-day temperature trends and absence of cold-front intrusions. Final station readings from central São Paulo will resolve the market once peak afternoon observations are confirmed.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$52,281Data de Término
17 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent model consensus from INMET and CPTEC points to a daytime maximum near the mid-May climatological average of 22°C for São Paulo, driven by stable high-pressure ridging, moderate southerly flow, and partial afternoon cloud cover that limits solar heating. This positioning explains the 67.3% market-implied probability for exactly 22°C, with the 33.5% chance of 23°C or higher reflecting residual uncertainty in clearing skies or brief warm advection. Historical May records show highs rarely exceeding 24°C this late in autumn, while lower outcomes remain negligible given current 10-day temperature trends and absence of cold-front intrusions. Final station readings from central São Paulo will resolve the market once peak afternoon observations are confirmed.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$52,281Data de Término
17 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRRecent model consensus from INMET and CPTEC points to a daytime maximum near the mid-May climatological average of 22°C for São Paulo, driven by stable high-pressure ridging, moderate southerly flow, and partial afternoon cloud cover that limits solar heating. This positioning explains the 67.3% market-implied probability for exactly 22°C, with the 33.5% chance of 23°C or higher reflecting residual uncertainty in clearing skies or brief warm advection. Historical May records show highs rarely exceeding 24°C this late in autumn, while lower outcomes remain negligible given current 10-day temperature trends and absence of cold-front intrusions. Final station readings from central São Paulo will resolve the market once peak afternoon observations are confirmed.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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