Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration forecast of a 30°C daily maximum in Taipei on May 16 drives the market’s near-100% implied probability for that exact outcome. A strengthening subtropical ridge is steering moist southerly flow across the region, while partly cloudy skies allow sufficient surface heating to reach but not exceed this threshold. Historical May climatology for northern Taiwan supports this range, with typical highs near 29–31°C under similar synoptic patterns. Real-time observational data from official stations continue to align with ensemble model consensus showing limited potential for additional warming. A rapid clearing of cloud cover or an unforecasted shift in wind direction could still push readings to 31°C or higher before the daily peak is recorded.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Taipei on May 16?
30°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$57,497 Vol.
$57,497 Vol.
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Não
29°C
Não
30°C
Sim
31°C ou mais
Não
30°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$57,497 Vol.
$57,497 Vol.
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Não
29°C
Não
30°C
Sim
31°C ou mais
Não
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration forecast of a 30°C daily maximum in Taipei on May 16 drives the market’s near-100% implied probability for that exact outcome. A strengthening subtropical ridge is steering moist southerly flow across the region, while partly cloudy skies allow sufficient surface heating to reach but not exceed this threshold. Historical May climatology for northern Taiwan supports this range, with typical highs near 29–31°C under similar synoptic patterns. Real-time observational data from official stations continue to align with ensemble model consensus showing limited potential for additional warming. A rapid clearing of cloud cover or an unforecasted shift in wind direction could still push readings to 31°C or higher before the daily peak is recorded.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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