Environment Canada’s forecast for Toronto centers on a daytime high near 23°C under partly cloudy skies with a 40% chance of showers, the key factor holding trader consensus tightly between 20–22°C. Variable cloud cover and the timing of any precipitation introduce meaningful uncertainty in maximum temperature, as brief clearing could allow brief warming while sustained showers would cap readings closer to 20–21°C. Model guidance shows modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds that further differentiate the narrow outcome probabilities, consistent with typical May variability around the long-term daily average of roughly 18–20°C. Resolution will hinge on official observations at Toronto Pearson International Airport.