Trader consensus on September nonfarm payrolls reflects broad uncertainty in the labor market, with the 50k–100k jobs added range holding only a slim lead at 26% implied probability amid closely matched buckets. Recent August employment data and August CPI releases have shown moderating job growth alongside easing price pressures, prompting traders to price in a wide range of outcomes rather than a single consensus path. Federal Reserve communications on the policy rate trajectory and Treasury yield movements have reinforced this dispersion, as markets weigh the potential for further softening against resilient demand signals. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent high-frequency indicators like weekly jobless claims represent key upcoming catalysts that could shift positioning before the early October BLS release.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos empregos foram adicionados em setembro?
50 mil a 100 mil 26%
100 mil a 150 mil 22%
0 a 50 mil 20%
-50 mil a 0 13%
<-50k
9%
-50 mil a 0
13%
0 a 50 mil
20%
50 mil a 100 mil
26%
100 mil a 150 mil
22%
150 mil a 200 mil
5%
200 mil+
5%
50 mil a 100 mil 26%
100 mil a 150 mil 22%
0 a 50 mil 20%
-50 mil a 0 13%
<-50k
9%
-50 mil a 0
13%
0 a 50 mil
20%
50 mil a 100 mil
26%
100 mil a 150 mil
22%
150 mil a 200 mil
5%
200 mil+
5%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Mercado Aberto: Sep 4, 2026, 12:37 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Fonte de resolução
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on September nonfarm payrolls reflects broad uncertainty in the labor market, with the 50k–100k jobs added range holding only a slim lead at 26% implied probability amid closely matched buckets. Recent August employment data and August CPI releases have shown moderating job growth alongside easing price pressures, prompting traders to price in a wide range of outcomes rather than a single consensus path. Federal Reserve communications on the policy rate trajectory and Treasury yield movements have reinforced this dispersion, as markets weigh the potential for further softening against resilient demand signals. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent high-frequency indicators like weekly jobless claims represent key upcoming catalysts that could shift positioning before the early October BLS release.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado


Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions