**Juliana Stratton, the Democratic nominee and current Lieutenant Governor backed by Governor J.B. Pritzker, commands trader consensus at 94% implied probability to win Illinois' open U.S. Senate seat following her March 17 primary victory over Raja Krishnamoorthi by eight points.** This commanding position reflects Illinois' status as a deep-blue stronghold where Republicans have not secured a statewide victory in over a decade, bolstered by overwhelming Democratic margins in Chicago and its suburbs that typically deliver safe Senate holds. Post-primary polls remain scarce, but historical base rates and Stratton's fundraising edge sustain the lopsided pricing against Republican nominee Don Tracy, former state party chair. Scenarios to challenge include a major Democratic scandal, national Republican midterm wave, or Tracy breakthroughs in downstate rural areas ahead of the November 3 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$24,612 Vol.
$24,612 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democrata
94%
Republicano
38%
$24,612 Vol.
$24,612 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democrata
$12,484 Vol.
94%
Republicano
$12,128 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.**Juliana Stratton, the Democratic nominee and current Lieutenant Governor backed by Governor J.B. Pritzker, commands trader consensus at 94% implied probability to win Illinois' open U.S. Senate seat following her March 17 primary victory over Raja Krishnamoorthi by eight points.** This commanding position reflects Illinois' status as a deep-blue stronghold where Republicans have not secured a statewide victory in over a decade, bolstered by overwhelming Democratic margins in Chicago and its suburbs that typically deliver safe Senate holds. Post-primary polls remain scarce, but historical base rates and Stratton's fundraising edge sustain the lopsided pricing against Republican nominee Don Tracy, former state party chair. Scenarios to challenge include a major Democratic scandal, national Republican midterm wave, or Tracy breakthroughs in downstate rural areas ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$24,612Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.**Juliana Stratton, the Democratic nominee and current Lieutenant Governor backed by Governor J.B. Pritzker, commands trader consensus at 94% implied probability to win Illinois' open U.S. Senate seat following her March 17 primary victory over Raja Krishnamoorthi by eight points.** This commanding position reflects Illinois' status as a deep-blue stronghold where Republicans have not secured a statewide victory in over a decade, bolstered by overwhelming Democratic margins in Chicago and its suburbs that typically deliver safe Senate holds. Post-primary polls remain scarce, but historical base rates and Stratton's fundraising edge sustain the lopsided pricing against Republican nominee Don Tracy, former state party chair. Scenarios to challenge include a major Democratic scandal, national Republican midterm wave, or Tracy breakthroughs in downstate rural areas ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$24,612Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Juliana Stratton, the Democratic nominee and current Lieutenant Governor backed by Governor J.B. Pritzker, commands trader consensus at 94% implied probability to win Illinois' open U.S. Senate seat following her March 17 primary victory over Raja Krishnamoorthi by eight points.** This commanding position reflects Illinois' status as a deep-blue stronghold where Republicans have not secured a statewide victory in over a decade, bolstered by overwhelming Democratic margins in Chicago and its suburbs that typically deliver safe Senate holds. Post-primary polls remain scarce, but historical base rates and Stratton's fundraising edge sustain the lopsided pricing against Republican nominee Don Tracy, former state party chair. Scenarios to challenge include a major Democratic scandal, national Republican midterm wave, or Tracy breakthroughs in downstate rural areas ahead of the November 3 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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