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Política·Médio Oriente

Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?

icon for Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?
Política·Médio Oriente

Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?

4% chance
Polymarket

$16,297 Vol.

4% chance
Polymarket

$16,297 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify. An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments. Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent statements from Iranian officials indicate ongoing diplomatic coordination with Oman on Strait of Hormuz transit rules, including potential joint oversight and fees under international law, yet no formal bilateral agreement has been finalized or scheduled for signing. Talks have progressed through deputy-level meetings and draft protocols since April, but face structural hurdles such as consultations with other Gulf states and regional opposition to expanded Iranian influence over the waterway. With only days remaining until the June 15 cutoff, trader consensus reflects the absence of an imminent binding deal amid broader U.S.-Iran and regional dynamics. A last-minute announcement or breakthrough in current negotiations remains the primary scenario that could shift the outcome before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.

An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.

Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$16,297
Data de Término
15 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
May 22, 2026, 5:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify. An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments. Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify. An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments. Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent statements from Iranian officials indicate ongoing diplomatic coordination with Oman on Strait of Hormuz transit rules, including potential joint oversight and fees under international law, yet no formal bilateral agreement has been finalized or scheduled for signing. Talks have progressed through deputy-level meetings and draft protocols since April, but face structural hurdles such as consultations with other Gulf states and regional opposition to expanded Iranian influence over the waterway. With only days remaining until the June 15 cutoff, trader consensus reflects the absence of an imminent binding deal amid broader U.S.-Iran and regional dynamics. A last-minute announcement or breakthrough in current negotiations remains the primary scenario that could shift the outcome before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.

An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.

Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$16,297
Data de Término
15 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
May 22, 2026, 5:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify. An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments. Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 4% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 4¢, the market collectively assigns a 4% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?" has generated $16.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 22, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?" is 4% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 4% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.