Skip to main content

Para negociar nos EUA, acesse polymarket.us

icon for Israel e Síria normalizam as relações por...?
Geopolítica·Israel

Israel e Síria normalizam as relações por...?

icon for Israel e Síria normalizam as relações por...?
Geopolítica·Israel

Israel e Síria normalizam as relações por...?

$2,149,484 Vol.

30 dez 2025
Polymarket

$2,149,484 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de dezembro de 2026

$687,730 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-mediated security talks between Israel and Syria, aimed at updating the 1974 disengagement framework, remain the central driver of trader assessments on normalization prospects. Following the 2024 fall of the Assad regime, Israel established a security zone in southern Syria, prompting Damascus to demand full withdrawal to pre-December 2024 lines alongside an end to strikes and incursions. High-level meetings in Paris (January 2026) produced a US-supervised communication mechanism for de-escalation and intelligence sharing, but progress stalled amid the Iran conflict before resuming in Amman in August 2026 after Israeli airstrikes on a Syrian airbase. Syrian officials have signaled openness to a security pact that could evolve into broader diplomatic relations, yet emphasize deep distrust and insistence on territorial integrity, including Golan claims. Recent Israeli actions, such as the September 2026 visit by Prime Minister Netanyahu to positions inside Syria, have heightened tensions, while US pressure under the Trump administration seeks to link de-escalation with potential Abraham Accords-style outcomes. Key variables include sustained mediation, control over minority areas like Suwayda, and avoidance of escalation with third parties.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,149,484
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 11, 2025, 5:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-mediated security talks between Israel and Syria, aimed at updating the 1974 disengagement framework, remain the central driver of trader assessments on normalization prospects. Following the 2024 fall of the Assad regime, Israel established a security zone in southern Syria, prompting Damascus to demand full withdrawal to pre-December 2024 lines alongside an end to strikes and incursions. High-level meetings in Paris (January 2026) produced a US-supervised communication mechanism for de-escalation and intelligence sharing, but progress stalled amid the Iran conflict before resuming in Amman in August 2026 after Israeli airstrikes on a Syrian airbase. Syrian officials have signaled openness to a security pact that could evolve into broader diplomatic relations, yet emphasize deep distrust and insistence on territorial integrity, including Golan claims. Recent Israeli actions, such as the September 2026 visit by Prime Minister Netanyahu to positions inside Syria, have heightened tensions, while US pressure under the Trump administration seeks to link de-escalation with potential Abraham Accords-style outcomes. Key variables include sustained mediation, control over minority areas like Suwayda, and avoidance of escalation with third parties.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,149,484
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 11, 2025, 5:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Relacionado

icon for Israel e Líbano normalizam relações antes de 2027?

Israel e Líbano normalizam relações antes de 2027?

7%
Sim
icon for Israel e Arábia Saudita normalizam relações antes de 2027?

Israel e Arábia Saudita normalizam relações antes de 2027?

7%
Sim
icon for Israel e Indonésia normalizam relações até 31 de dezembro de 2026?

Israel e Indonésia normalizam relações até 31 de dezembro de 2026?

7%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel e Síria normalizam as relações por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de dezembro de 2026" at 9%, followed by "31 de dezembro de 2025" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israel e Síria normalizam as relações por...?" has generated $2.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israel e Síria normalizam as relações por...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Israel e Síria normalizam as relações por...?" is "31 de dezembro de 2026" at just 9%, with "31 de dezembro de 2025" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Israel e Síria normalizam as relações por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.