Current forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency project a nighttime low of 18°C for Tokyo on May 17, underpinning the market’s near-certain consensus on this threshold. Mid-May climatology for the Kanto region typically features lows between 15–18°C under dominant subtropical high pressure, with ensemble runs showing tight agreement and low spread in the final 12–24 hours. Urban heat-island effects and calm winds further stabilize readings near this level. Only an unforecast cold-air intrusion or rapid frontal passage could push the minimum below 18°C, scenarios current guidance assigns negligible probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Tóquio no dia 17 de maio?
18°C 99.6%
14°C ou menos <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$15,553 Vol.
$15,553 Vol.
14°C ou menos
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
100%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C ou mais
<1%
18°C 99.6%
14°C ou menos <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$15,553 Vol.
$15,553 Vol.
14°C ou menos
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
100%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C ou mais
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTCurrent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency project a nighttime low of 18°C for Tokyo on May 17, underpinning the market’s near-certain consensus on this threshold. Mid-May climatology for the Kanto region typically features lows between 15–18°C under dominant subtropical high pressure, with ensemble runs showing tight agreement and low spread in the final 12–24 hours. Urban heat-island effects and calm winds further stabilize readings near this level. Only an unforecast cold-air intrusion or rapid frontal passage could push the minimum below 18°C, scenarios current guidance assigns negligible probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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