Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor of Sergipe seeking re-election, holds an 81.5% implied probability on Polymarket amid consistent polling leads. A late-August Quaest survey showed him at 40% in the first-round scenario against Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 28%, with Ricardo Marques (PL) at 5% and minor candidates below 2%. This positioning reflects Mitidieri’s incumbency advantage, broad support across demographic groups, and voter assessments of his administration ahead of the October 4 first round. Francisquinho, the main challenger and former Itabaiana mayor, trails despite party backing and a registered platform focused on education and health infrastructure. Lower probabilities for remaining contenders align with their single-digit or sub-1% poll shares, while the short campaign window and limited undecided voters (17% in the latest data) limit upside for late shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoFábio 82%
Valmir de Francisquinho 13%
Taty Cristina de Jesus 1.0%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$16,503 Vol.
$16,503 Vol.
4 out 2026
Fábio
82%
Valmir de Francisquinho
13%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
1%
Emanuel Cacho
<1%
Dr. Helton
<1%
Ricardo Marques
<1%
Fábio 82%
Valmir de Francisquinho 13%
Taty Cristina de Jesus 1.0%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$16,503 Vol.
$16,503 Vol.
4 out 2026
Fábio
$13,201 Vol.
82%
Valmir de Francisquinho
$1,222 Vol.
13%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
$537 Vol.
1%
Emanuel Cacho
$518 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Helton
$582 Vol.
<1%
Ricardo Marques
$443 Vol.
<1%
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor of Sergipe seeking re-election, holds an 81.5% implied probability on Polymarket amid consistent polling leads. A late-August Quaest survey showed him at 40% in the first-round scenario against Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 28%, with Ricardo Marques (PL) at 5% and minor candidates below 2%. This positioning reflects Mitidieri’s incumbency advantage, broad support across demographic groups, and voter assessments of his administration ahead of the October 4 first round. Francisquinho, the main challenger and former Itabaiana mayor, trails despite party backing and a registered platform focused on education and health infrastructure. Lower probabilities for remaining contenders align with their single-digit or sub-1% poll shares, while the short campaign window and limited undecided voters (17% in the latest data) limit upside for late shifts.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$16,503Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor of Sergipe seeking re-election, holds an 81.5% implied probability on Polymarket amid consistent polling leads. A late-August Quaest survey showed him at 40% in the first-round scenario against Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 28%, with Ricardo Marques (PL) at 5% and minor candidates below 2%. This positioning reflects Mitidieri’s incumbency advantage, broad support across demographic groups, and voter assessments of his administration ahead of the October 4 first round. Francisquinho, the main challenger and former Itabaiana mayor, trails despite party backing and a registered platform focused on education and health infrastructure. Lower probabilities for remaining contenders align with their single-digit or sub-1% poll shares, while the short campaign window and limited undecided voters (17% in the latest data) limit upside for late shifts.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$16,503Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor of Sergipe seeking re-election, holds an 81.5% implied probability on Polymarket amid consistent polling leads. A late-August Quaest survey showed him at 40% in the first-round scenario against Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 28%, with Ricardo Marques (PL) at 5% and minor candidates below 2%. This positioning reflects Mitidieri’s incumbency advantage, broad support across demographic groups, and voter assessments of his administration ahead of the October 4 first round. Francisquinho, the main challenger and former Itabaiana mayor, trails despite party backing and a registered platform focused on education and health infrastructure. Lower probabilities for remaining contenders align with their single-digit or sub-1% poll shares, while the short campaign window and limited undecided voters (17% in the latest data) limit upside for late shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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