Recent diplomatic efforts have shaped trader sentiment around a possible US-Iran nuclear agreement before 2027. In early May 2026, US and Iranian negotiators advanced talks on a one-page memorandum that would formally end the ongoing regional conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, provide sanctions relief, and launch a 30-day period for detailed nuclear limits, including a proposed moratorium on uranium enrichment. Despite these steps and reports of substantial progress in Oman-mediated rounds, the process stalled after President Trump rejected Iran’s latest counterproposal over insufficient nuclear curbs, leaving core disputes unresolved on enrichment timelines, stockpile handling, and verification. This mix of framework momentum and persistent deadlock underpins the current 59% implied probability for a deal by the end of 2026, as markets weigh the potential for renewed negotiations against risks of renewed escalation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$1,332,719 Vol.
$1,332,719 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$1,332,719 Vol.
$1,332,719 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic efforts have shaped trader sentiment around a possible US-Iran nuclear agreement before 2027. In early May 2026, US and Iranian negotiators advanced talks on a one-page memorandum that would formally end the ongoing regional conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, provide sanctions relief, and launch a 30-day period for detailed nuclear limits, including a proposed moratorium on uranium enrichment. Despite these steps and reports of substantial progress in Oman-mediated rounds, the process stalled after President Trump rejected Iran’s latest counterproposal over insufficient nuclear curbs, leaving core disputes unresolved on enrichment timelines, stockpile handling, and verification. This mix of framework momentum and persistent deadlock underpins the current 59% implied probability for a deal by the end of 2026, as markets weigh the potential for renewed negotiations against risks of renewed escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volume
$1,332,719Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic efforts have shaped trader sentiment around a possible US-Iran nuclear agreement before 2027. In early May 2026, US and Iranian negotiators advanced talks on a one-page memorandum that would formally end the ongoing regional conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, provide sanctions relief, and launch a 30-day period for detailed nuclear limits, including a proposed moratorium on uranium enrichment. Despite these steps and reports of substantial progress in Oman-mediated rounds, the process stalled after President Trump rejected Iran’s latest counterproposal over insufficient nuclear curbs, leaving core disputes unresolved on enrichment timelines, stockpile handling, and verification. This mix of framework momentum and persistent deadlock underpins the current 59% implied probability for a deal by the end of 2026, as markets weigh the potential for renewed negotiations against risks of renewed escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$1,332,719Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic efforts have shaped trader sentiment around a possible US-Iran nuclear agreement before 2027. In early May 2026, US and Iranian negotiators advanced talks on a one-page memorandum that would formally end the ongoing regional conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, provide sanctions relief, and launch a 30-day period for detailed nuclear limits, including a proposed moratorium on uranium enrichment. Despite these steps and reports of substantial progress in Oman-mediated rounds, the process stalled after President Trump rejected Iran’s latest counterproposal over insufficient nuclear curbs, leaving core disputes unresolved on enrichment timelines, stockpile handling, and verification. This mix of framework momentum and persistent deadlock underpins the current 59% implied probability for a deal by the end of 2026, as markets weigh the potential for renewed negotiations against risks of renewed escalation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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