Recent diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing, including the mid-May Trump-Xi summit that placed Taiwan on the agenda without triggering crisis-level rhetoric, reinforces trader expectations of continued restraint through June. Routine People’s Liberation Army air and maritime activities in the Taiwan Strait have remained at normalized levels since April, with no surge in large-scale exercises or amphibious preparations that would signal imminent action. US intelligence assessments from March continue to highlight Beijing’s preference for non-military unification paths and recognition of the prohibitive costs of an invasion attempt. While these factors underpin the 98.6 percent implied probability on “No,” an abrupt cross-strait incident or unexpected shift in US arms policy could still introduce limited volatility before the June 30 resolution window closes.