U.S. policy toward Cuba in 2026 has centered on economic coercion through an oil import blockade via executive order, expanded sanctions on suppliers and regime entities, and an indictment of Raúl Castro, all aimed at forcing political and economic reforms by year-end. These measures follow the Venezuela intervention and align with stated goals of regime change through negotiations rather than force, including reported talks with Cuban figures and prisoner releases on the island. U.S. officials have repeatedly signaled a preference for diplomatic or economic paths, with limited military activity limited to surveillance and no visible large-scale troop staging. Analysts assess full-scale invasion as the least probable scenario given costs, potential insurgency risks, and competing commitments, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% "No" probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
8% chance
$3,252,591 Vol.
$3,252,591 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
8% chance
$3,252,591 Vol.
$3,252,591 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.U.S. policy toward Cuba in 2026 has centered on economic coercion through an oil import blockade via executive order, expanded sanctions on suppliers and regime entities, and an indictment of Raúl Castro, all aimed at forcing political and economic reforms by year-end. These measures follow the Venezuela intervention and align with stated goals of regime change through negotiations rather than force, including reported talks with Cuban figures and prisoner releases on the island. U.S. officials have repeatedly signaled a preference for diplomatic or economic paths, with limited military activity limited to surveillance and no visible large-scale troop staging. Analysts assess full-scale invasion as the least probable scenario given costs, potential insurgency risks, and competing commitments, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% "No" probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$3,252,591Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.U.S. policy toward Cuba in 2026 has centered on economic coercion through an oil import blockade via executive order, expanded sanctions on suppliers and regime entities, and an indictment of Raúl Castro, all aimed at forcing political and economic reforms by year-end. These measures follow the Venezuela intervention and align with stated goals of regime change through negotiations rather than force, including reported talks with Cuban figures and prisoner releases on the island. U.S. officials have repeatedly signaled a preference for diplomatic or economic paths, with limited military activity limited to surveillance and no visible large-scale troop staging. Analysts assess full-scale invasion as the least probable scenario given costs, potential insurgency risks, and competing commitments, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% "No" probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$3,252,591Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. policy toward Cuba in 2026 has centered on economic coercion through an oil import blockade via executive order, expanded sanctions on suppliers and regime entities, and an indictment of Raúl Castro, all aimed at forcing political and economic reforms by year-end. These measures follow the Venezuela intervention and align with stated goals of regime change through negotiations rather than force, including reported talks with Cuban figures and prisoner releases on the island. U.S. officials have repeatedly signaled a preference for diplomatic or economic paths, with limited military activity limited to surveillance and no visible large-scale troop staging. Analysts assess full-scale invasion as the least probable scenario given costs, potential insurgency risks, and competing commitments, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% "No" probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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