Scientific monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies shows no known near-Earth objects capable of delivering a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent airburst or impact in 2026, with Sentry risk assessments listing only negligible probabilities below 0.004 percent for any qualifying bodies. Historical fireball and infrasound records indicate such events occur roughly once every two to five years on average, driven by undetected meter-scale asteroids whose entry trajectories remain unpredictable until atmospheric detection. A notable early-2026 uptick in witnessed bolides, including one over Ohio releasing just 0.25 kt, has not approached the 5 kt threshold, reinforcing the current 64 percent market-implied probability for “No.” Ongoing satellite and ground-based surveillance through year-end will continue to refine these odds as new orbital data emerge.