**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 70.5% reflects the absence of any ≥5 kt bolide through late August 2026, combined with CNEOS fireball data showing only sub-kiloton events (maximum ~1.1 kt observed).** Historical analyses, including Brown et al. (2002), indicate Earth experiences roughly one ~5 kt impact per year on average, following a power-law flux distribution for 1–10 m objects. With more than two-thirds of the year elapsed and no qualifying natural meteoroid detected in official U.S. Government sensor records, the remaining window yields limited implied probability. No known near-Earth asteroids on collision trajectories for 2026 appear in current risk lists or close-approach tables, and ongoing CNEOS monitoring continues to report only low-energy atmospheric entries. Resolution hinges on the final four months of CNEOS “Impact Energy (kt)” values; any undetected or unreported event would need to exceed the observed pattern to shift odds materially.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
Да
30% вероятность
$312,478 Объем
$312,478 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
30% вероятность
$312,478 Объем
$312,478 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 70.5% reflects the absence of any ≥5 kt bolide through late August 2026, combined with CNEOS fireball data showing only sub-kiloton events (maximum ~1.1 kt observed).** Historical analyses, including Brown et al. (2002), indicate Earth experiences roughly one ~5 kt impact per year on average, following a power-law flux distribution for 1–10 m objects. With more than two-thirds of the year elapsed and no qualifying natural meteoroid detected in official U.S. Government sensor records, the remaining window yields limited implied probability. No known near-Earth asteroids on collision trajectories for 2026 appear in current risk lists or close-approach tables, and ongoing CNEOS monitoring continues to report only low-energy atmospheric entries. Resolution hinges on the final four months of CNEOS “Impact Energy (kt)” values; any undetected or unreported event would need to exceed the observed pattern to shift odds materially.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Объем
$312,478Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 70.5% reflects the absence of any ≥5 kt bolide through late August 2026, combined with CNEOS fireball data showing only sub-kiloton events (maximum ~1.1 kt observed).** Historical analyses, including Brown et al. (2002), indicate Earth experiences roughly one ~5 kt impact per year on average, following a power-law flux distribution for 1–10 m objects. With more than two-thirds of the year elapsed and no qualifying natural meteoroid detected in official U.S. Government sensor records, the remaining window yields limited implied probability. No known near-Earth asteroids on collision trajectories for 2026 appear in current risk lists or close-approach tables, and ongoing CNEOS monitoring continues to report only low-energy atmospheric entries. Resolution hinges on the final four months of CNEOS “Impact Energy (kt)” values; any undetected or unreported event would need to exceed the observed pattern to shift odds materially.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$312,478Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 70.5% reflects the absence of any ≥5 kt bolide through late August 2026, combined with CNEOS fireball data showing only sub-kiloton events (maximum ~1.1 kt observed).** Historical analyses, including Brown et al. (2002), indicate Earth experiences roughly one ~5 kt impact per year on average, following a power-law flux distribution for 1–10 m objects. With more than two-thirds of the year elapsed and no qualifying natural meteoroid detected in official U.S. Government sensor records, the remaining window yields limited implied probability. No known near-Earth asteroids on collision trajectories for 2026 appear in current risk lists or close-approach tables, and ongoing CNEOS monitoring continues to report only low-energy atmospheric entries. Resolution hinges on the final four months of CNEOS “Impact Energy (kt)” values; any undetected or unreported event would need to exceed the observed pattern to shift odds materially.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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