Recent moderation in Canada’s headline CPI, which eased to 2.8% year-over-year in June 2026 from 3.2% in May amid a sharp drop in gasoline prices, underpins the 39.8% market-implied probability for a 2.5–2.9% annual average. The Bank of Canada’s July Monetary Policy Report projects inflation easing toward its 2% target over the medium term, supported by below-capacity economic growth, cooling shelter costs, and contained core measures near 2.0–2.2%. Elevated near-term energy volatility from Middle East supply factors has lifted some forecasts to 2.5%, yet subdued demand and demographic shifts continue to anchor trader expectations around the leading bin, with upcoming data releases likely to refine the path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоГодовая инфляция в Канаде в 2026 году
2,5–2,9% 39.8%
2,0–2,4% 17.3%
1,5–1,9% 14.4%
3,5-3,9% 13.1%
$38,065 Объем
$38,065 Объем
<1,0%
3%
1,0–1,4%
5%
1,5–1,9%
14%
2,0–2,4%
17%
2,5–2,9%
40%
3,0–3,4%
13%
3,5-3,9%
13%
4,0%+
4%
2,5–2,9% 39.8%
2,0–2,4% 17.3%
1,5–1,9% 14.4%
3,5-3,9% 13.1%
$38,065 Объем
$38,065 Объем
<1,0%
3%
1,0–1,4%
5%
1,5–1,9%
14%
2,0–2,4%
17%
2,5–2,9%
40%
3,0–3,4%
13%
3,5-3,9%
13%
4,0%+
4%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent moderation in Canada’s headline CPI, which eased to 2.8% year-over-year in June 2026 from 3.2% in May amid a sharp drop in gasoline prices, underpins the 39.8% market-implied probability for a 2.5–2.9% annual average. The Bank of Canada’s July Monetary Policy Report projects inflation easing toward its 2% target over the medium term, supported by below-capacity economic growth, cooling shelter costs, and contained core measures near 2.0–2.2%. Elevated near-term energy volatility from Middle East supply factors has lifted some forecasts to 2.5%, yet subdued demand and demographic shifts continue to anchor trader expectations around the leading bin, with upcoming data releases likely to refine the path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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