Current meteorological models show a tight cluster of outcomes around 19–21°C for Warsaw’s maximum temperature on May 19, reflecting modest uncertainty in the strength of daytime heating under a slowly evolving high-pressure ridge over central Europe. Ensemble guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts highlights variable warm-air advection from the south-east versus cooler maritime flow from the Baltic, with small shifts in these patterns sufficient to move the daily high across the 19–21°C threshold. Historical May climatology from the Polish Institute of Meteorology places the long-term average maximum near 18°C, so the current distribution of market-implied probabilities captures traders’ assessment of a modest positive anomaly driven by recent clear-sky conditions and limited cloud cover. Updated short-range model runs later today will narrow the remaining spread.