Recent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated in the past 24 hours, show consensus for daytime maxima of 12–14°C in Warsaw on May 17, driven by northerly advection of cooler polar maritime air under a broad upper-level trough. Limited solar insolation from increased stratiform cloud cover and weak surface pressure gradients further suppress heating, shifting probabilities toward the lower end of typical mid-May climatology near 18–20°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with key uncertainty tied to exact cloud timing and any brief warm-air intrusions ahead of resolution at the Chopin Airport station.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Варшаве 17 мая?
12°C 28.2%
13°C 26%
14°C 21%
11°C 10%
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
10%
12°C
28%
13°C
26%
14°C
21%
15°C or higher
10%
12°C 28.2%
13°C 26%
14°C 21%
11°C 10%
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
10%
12°C
28%
13°C
26%
14°C
21%
15°C or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWARecent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated in the past 24 hours, show consensus for daytime maxima of 12–14°C in Warsaw on May 17, driven by northerly advection of cooler polar maritime air under a broad upper-level trough. Limited solar insolation from increased stratiform cloud cover and weak surface pressure gradients further suppress heating, shifting probabilities toward the lower end of typical mid-May climatology near 18–20°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with key uncertainty tied to exact cloud timing and any brief warm-air intrusions ahead of resolution at the Chopin Airport station.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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