Iran's recent counterproposals in U.S. talks emphasize ending the ongoing conflict and securing sanctions relief before addressing nuclear issues in a later phase, with offers limited to temporary pauses in enrichment or caps around 3.5 percent rather than permanent cessation. These positions align with Tehran's consistent refusal to dismantle facilities or fully relinquish enrichment rights, despite U.S. demands for a complete halt and stockpile handover. Ongoing diplomatic exchanges through May have produced no firm commitments meeting the May 31 deadline, sustaining the trader consensus reflected in the 94 percent implied probability against agreement. Breakthroughs in direct negotiations or major concessions could still alter the trajectory before the cutoff.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИран согласен прекратить обогащение урана к 31 мая?
Иран согласен прекратить обогащение урана к 31 мая?
Да
$621,127 Объем
$621,127 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
Да
$621,127 Объем
$621,127 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's recent counterproposals in U.S. talks emphasize ending the ongoing conflict and securing sanctions relief before addressing nuclear issues in a later phase, with offers limited to temporary pauses in enrichment or caps around 3.5 percent rather than permanent cessation. These positions align with Tehran's consistent refusal to dismantle facilities or fully relinquish enrichment rights, despite U.S. demands for a complete halt and stockpile handover. Ongoing diplomatic exchanges through May have produced no firm commitments meeting the May 31 deadline, sustaining the trader consensus reflected in the 94 percent implied probability against agreement. Breakthroughs in direct negotiations or major concessions could still alter the trajectory before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Объем
$621,127Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's recent counterproposals in U.S. talks emphasize ending the ongoing conflict and securing sanctions relief before addressing nuclear issues in a later phase, with offers limited to temporary pauses in enrichment or caps around 3.5 percent rather than permanent cessation. These positions align with Tehran's consistent refusal to dismantle facilities or fully relinquish enrichment rights, despite U.S. demands for a complete halt and stockpile handover. Ongoing diplomatic exchanges through May have produced no firm commitments meeting the May 31 deadline, sustaining the trader consensus reflected in the 94 percent implied probability against agreement. Breakthroughs in direct negotiations or major concessions could still alter the trajectory before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$621,127Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's recent counterproposals in U.S. talks emphasize ending the ongoing conflict and securing sanctions relief before addressing nuclear issues in a later phase, with offers limited to temporary pauses in enrichment or caps around 3.5 percent rather than permanent cessation. These positions align with Tehran's consistent refusal to dismantle facilities or fully relinquish enrichment rights, despite U.S. demands for a complete halt and stockpile handover. Ongoing diplomatic exchanges through May have produced no firm commitments meeting the May 31 deadline, sustaining the trader consensus reflected in the 94 percent implied probability against agreement. Breakthroughs in direct negotiations or major concessions could still alter the trajectory before the cutoff.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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