This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.Iranian airspace remains severely restricted, with the Tehran FIR (OIIX) largely closed to civilian overflights since U.S. and Israeli strikes began on February 28, 2026, triggering emergency NOTAMs amid the ongoing conflict. Partial reopening of eastern sectors above FL285 occurred in late April following a fragile ceasefire, but western areas stay off-limits due to military risks, as confirmed by aviation authorities and U.S. embassy alerts. Trader sentiment reflects this tense status quo, driven by recent Iranian deployment of 10,000 FPV drones reported May 11 and Netanyahu's covert UAE visit on May 13 signaling Gulf-Israel defense coordination against Tehran. No major closures in the past 30 days, but escalation risks from port blockades, failed peace talks, or retaliatory strikes loom ahead of any full normalization.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian airspace remains severely restricted, with the Tehran FIR (OIIX) largely closed to civilian overflights since U.S. and Israeli strikes began on February 28, 2026, triggering emergency NOTAMs amid the ongoing conflict. Partial reopening of eastern sectors above FL285 occurred in late April following a fragile ceasefire, but western areas stay off-limits due to military risks, as confirmed by aviation authorities and U.S. embassy alerts. Trader sentiment reflects this tense status quo, driven by recent Iranian deployment of 10,000 FPV drones reported May 11 and Netanyahu's covert UAE visit on May 13 signaling Gulf-Israel defense coordination against Tehran. No major closures in the past 30 days, but escalation risks from port blockades, failed peace talks, or retaliatory strikes loom ahead of any full normalization.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
May 11 2026
Iranian aviation authorities issue new notices on airspace restrictions amid security alerts
May 31 jumps to 41%9%
New official notices about airspace restrictions amid heightened security alerts increased market expectations of a possible major closure.
May 10 2026
Airlines continue cancellations and rerouting amid ongoing regional tensions
May 31 jumps to 38%8%
Ongoing airline disruptions and cautious official statements kept the market's probability moderate, reflecting uncertainty about a potential major closure.
May 8 2026
Iran resumes limited airspace restrictions after missile strikes on UAE
May 31 drops to 27%7%
Following missile strikes, Iran reinstated some airspace restrictions, but these were limited and did not constitute a major closure, causing mixed market reactions.
May 8 2026
No official Iranian government or civil aviation announcements of a major airspace closure;
May 8 dips to 2%1%
commercial flights continued operating normally or with limited restrictions not meeting the "major closure" criteria; market
May 7 2026
Reuters notes that several airlines (Finnair, British Airways, Pegasus, etc.) are cancelling or rerouting flights to avoid Iranian airspace, but there is no official Iranian
May 7 drops to 0%7%
Reuters notes that several airlines (Finnair, British Airways, Pegasus, etc.) are cancelling or rerouting flights to avoid Iranian airspace, but there is no official Iranian government order closing the airspace, leading traders to push the Yes
May 7 2026
Minor temporary uptick to 7% possibly due to short-term rumors or geopolitical concerns, but no verifiable news of a major closure emerged;
May 8 rises to 7%4%
market quickly corrected downward
May 7 2026
Partial airspace closures near Strait of Hormuz reported, no broad closure
May 31 jumps to 40%13%
Reports of partial closures for military drills near the Strait of Hormuz increased concerns about escalation, pushing
May 6 2026
Market reassesses after Iranian authorities clarify limited airspace restrictions
May 31 drops to 27%11%
Clarifications from Iranian aviation authorities indicated that closures were targeted and temporary, not a full major closure, leading to a market correction downward.
May 5 2026
Benzinga reports that after renewed Strait‑of‑Hormuz attacks, Polymarket odds that Iran will enact a “major closure” jump to 52 % from 42 % the day before, prompting traders to
May 7 jumps to 7%6%
Benzinga reports that after renewed Strait‑of‑Hormuz attacks, Polymarket odds that Iran will enact a “major closure” jump to 52 % from 42 % the day before, prompting traders to bid up the Yes
May 5 2026
Airlines including Air India and IndiGo reroute flights due to Iran airspace closure
May 31 plunges to 38%24%
Major Indian carriers announced rerouting and cancellations following Iran's airspace closure announcements, confirming operational disruptions but with some uncertainty about the closure's scope, causing
May 4 2026
Iran issues a temporary restriction on civilian flights within the Tehran FIR, allowing only pre‑authorized international traffic;
May 15 dips to 4%4%
the notice is brief and does not affect the majority of commercial airports
May 4 2026
Market briefly peaked at 27%–39% on speculation or rumors possibly linked to regional tensions or military drills, but no official Iranian airspace closure announcements
May 8 plunges to 10%17%
Market briefly peaked at 27%–39% on speculation or rumors possibly linked to regional tensions or military drills, but no official Iranian airspace closure announcements materialized; absence of qualifying closure news caused
May 4 2026
Iran announced the reopening of its western airspace region (covering Shiraz and Isfahan) after a 12‑hour suspension, but kept the eastern sector closed, keeping two major
May 31 surges to 59%18%
Iran announced the reopening of its western airspace region (covering Shiraz and Isfahan) after a 12‑hour suspension, but kept the eastern sector closed, keeping two major airports (IKA, MHD) grounded
May 4 2026
Following the partial reopening, the Iranian civil aviation ministry clarified that the suspension of arrivals/departures at IKA and THR would continue until further notice,
May 31 dips to 55%4%
Following the partial reopening, the Iranian civil aviation ministry clarified that the suspension of arrivals/departures at IKA and THR would continue until further notice, pushing the market back up
May 4 2026
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on UAE, prompting UAE airspace restrictions
May 31 surges to 62%22%
Iran's missile and drone attacks on the UAE led to renewed UAE airspace restrictions and increased regional tensions, significantly raising the probability of Iran imposing a major airspace closure.
May 2 2026
Reports emerge of increased military activity near Iranian airspace
May 31 drops to 31%11%
News of military drills and missile tests near Iranian airspace led to partial airspace restrictions but no major closure, causing a market dip as the risk of a full closure appeared lower.
Iran's Civil Aviation Authority announced temporary restrictions on airspace access affecting commercial flights, signaling heightened security concerns and raising market expectations of a possible broader closure.
May 1 2026
No credible reports or official notices from Iranian aviation authorities indicated any planned or ongoing major closure of Iranian airspace by May 8, leading to initial moderate
May 8 dips to 21%3%
No credible reports or official notices from Iranian aviation authorities indicated any planned or ongoing major closure of Iranian airspace by May 8, leading to initial moderate market optimism (around 24%) that a closure might occur
Feb 28 2026
U.S. and Israeli strikes prompt Iran (and Iraq) to close civilian airspace, but the closure is framed as an immediate, conflict‑driven response rather than a sustained, broad
May 15 drops to 14%6%
U.S. and Israeli strikes prompt Iran (and Iraq) to close civilian airspace, but the closure is framed as an immediate, conflict‑driven response rather than a sustained, broad suspension
Feb 28 2026
Middle East airspace shuts after US‑Israel strike on Iran;
May 15 drops to 27%5%
Iran closes its airspace to civilian traffic, prompting fears of a broad closure that pushed the market up
Feb 28 2026
Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet issue advisories about flight disruptions caused by Iran’s short‑term airspace closure, underscoring that the impact was limited to specific routes
May 15 dips to 11%3%
Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet issue advisories about flight disruptions caused by Iran’s short‑term airspace closure, underscoring that the impact was limited to specific routes and not a nationwide suspension
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.Iranian airspace remains severely restricted, with the Tehran FIR (OIIX) largely closed to civilian overflights since U.S. and Israeli strikes began on February 28, 2026, triggering emergency NOTAMs amid the ongoing conflict. Partial reopening of eastern sectors above FL285 occurred in late April following a fragile ceasefire, but western areas stay off-limits due to military risks, as confirmed by aviation authorities and U.S. embassy alerts. Trader sentiment reflects this tense status quo, driven by recent Iranian deployment of 10,000 FPV drones reported May 11 and Netanyahu's covert UAE visit on May 13 signaling Gulf-Israel defense coordination against Tehran. No major closures in the past 30 days, but escalation risks from port blockades, failed peace talks, or retaliatory strikes loom ahead of any full normalization.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian airspace remains severely restricted, with the Tehran FIR (OIIX) largely closed to civilian overflights since U.S. and Israeli strikes began on February 28, 2026, triggering emergency NOTAMs amid the ongoing conflict. Partial reopening of eastern sectors above FL285 occurred in late April following a fragile ceasefire, but western areas stay off-limits due to military risks, as confirmed by aviation authorities and U.S. embassy alerts. Trader sentiment reflects this tense status quo, driven by recent Iranian deployment of 10,000 FPV drones reported May 11 and Netanyahu's covert UAE visit on May 13 signaling Gulf-Israel defense coordination against Tehran. No major closures in the past 30 days, but escalation risks from port blockades, failed peace talks, or retaliatory strikes loom ahead of any full normalization.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
May 11 2026
Iranian aviation authorities issue new notices on airspace restrictions amid security alerts
May 31 jumps to 41%9%
New official notices about airspace restrictions amid heightened security alerts increased market expectations of a possible major closure.
May 10 2026
Airlines continue cancellations and rerouting amid ongoing regional tensions
May 31 jumps to 38%8%
Ongoing airline disruptions and cautious official statements kept the market's probability moderate, reflecting uncertainty about a potential major closure.
May 8 2026
Iran resumes limited airspace restrictions after missile strikes on UAE
May 31 drops to 27%7%
Following missile strikes, Iran reinstated some airspace restrictions, but these were limited and did not constitute a major closure, causing mixed market reactions.
May 8 2026
No official Iranian government or civil aviation announcements of a major airspace closure;
May 8 dips to 2%1%
commercial flights continued operating normally or with limited restrictions not meeting the "major closure" criteria; market
May 7 2026
Reuters notes that several airlines (Finnair, British Airways, Pegasus, etc.) are cancelling or rerouting flights to avoid Iranian airspace, but there is no official Iranian
May 7 drops to 0%7%
Reuters notes that several airlines (Finnair, British Airways, Pegasus, etc.) are cancelling or rerouting flights to avoid Iranian airspace, but there is no official Iranian government order closing the airspace, leading traders to push the Yes
May 7 2026
Minor temporary uptick to 7% possibly due to short-term rumors or geopolitical concerns, but no verifiable news of a major closure emerged;
May 8 rises to 7%4%
market quickly corrected downward
May 7 2026
Partial airspace closures near Strait of Hormuz reported, no broad closure
May 31 jumps to 40%13%
Reports of partial closures for military drills near the Strait of Hormuz increased concerns about escalation, pushing
May 6 2026
Market reassesses after Iranian authorities clarify limited airspace restrictions
May 31 drops to 27%11%
Clarifications from Iranian aviation authorities indicated that closures were targeted and temporary, not a full major closure, leading to a market correction downward.
May 5 2026
Benzinga reports that after renewed Strait‑of‑Hormuz attacks, Polymarket odds that Iran will enact a “major closure” jump to 52 % from 42 % the day before, prompting traders to
May 7 jumps to 7%6%
Benzinga reports that after renewed Strait‑of‑Hormuz attacks, Polymarket odds that Iran will enact a “major closure” jump to 52 % from 42 % the day before, prompting traders to bid up the Yes
May 5 2026
Airlines including Air India and IndiGo reroute flights due to Iran airspace closure
May 31 plunges to 38%24%
Major Indian carriers announced rerouting and cancellations following Iran's airspace closure announcements, confirming operational disruptions but with some uncertainty about the closure's scope, causing
May 4 2026
Iran issues a temporary restriction on civilian flights within the Tehran FIR, allowing only pre‑authorized international traffic;
May 15 dips to 4%4%
the notice is brief and does not affect the majority of commercial airports
May 4 2026
Market briefly peaked at 27%–39% on speculation or rumors possibly linked to regional tensions or military drills, but no official Iranian airspace closure announcements
May 8 plunges to 10%17%
Market briefly peaked at 27%–39% on speculation or rumors possibly linked to regional tensions or military drills, but no official Iranian airspace closure announcements materialized; absence of qualifying closure news caused
May 4 2026
Iran announced the reopening of its western airspace region (covering Shiraz and Isfahan) after a 12‑hour suspension, but kept the eastern sector closed, keeping two major
May 31 surges to 59%18%
Iran announced the reopening of its western airspace region (covering Shiraz and Isfahan) after a 12‑hour suspension, but kept the eastern sector closed, keeping two major airports (IKA, MHD) grounded
May 4 2026
Following the partial reopening, the Iranian civil aviation ministry clarified that the suspension of arrivals/departures at IKA and THR would continue until further notice,
May 31 dips to 55%4%
Following the partial reopening, the Iranian civil aviation ministry clarified that the suspension of arrivals/departures at IKA and THR would continue until further notice, pushing the market back up
May 4 2026
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on UAE, prompting UAE airspace restrictions
May 31 surges to 62%22%
Iran's missile and drone attacks on the UAE led to renewed UAE airspace restrictions and increased regional tensions, significantly raising the probability of Iran imposing a major airspace closure.
May 2 2026
Reports emerge of increased military activity near Iranian airspace
May 31 drops to 31%11%
News of military drills and missile tests near Iranian airspace led to partial airspace restrictions but no major closure, causing a market dip as the risk of a full closure appeared lower.
Iran's Civil Aviation Authority announced temporary restrictions on airspace access affecting commercial flights, signaling heightened security concerns and raising market expectations of a possible broader closure.
May 1 2026
No credible reports or official notices from Iranian aviation authorities indicated any planned or ongoing major closure of Iranian airspace by May 8, leading to initial moderate
May 8 dips to 21%3%
No credible reports or official notices from Iranian aviation authorities indicated any planned or ongoing major closure of Iranian airspace by May 8, leading to initial moderate market optimism (around 24%) that a closure might occur
Feb 28 2026
U.S. and Israeli strikes prompt Iran (and Iraq) to close civilian airspace, but the closure is framed as an immediate, conflict‑driven response rather than a sustained, broad
May 15 drops to 14%6%
U.S. and Israeli strikes prompt Iran (and Iraq) to close civilian airspace, but the closure is framed as an immediate, conflict‑driven response rather than a sustained, broad suspension
Feb 28 2026
Middle East airspace shuts after US‑Israel strike on Iran;
May 15 drops to 27%5%
Iran closes its airspace to civilian traffic, prompting fears of a broad closure that pushed the market up
Feb 28 2026
Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet issue advisories about flight disruptions caused by Iran’s short‑term airspace closure, underscoring that the impact was limited to specific routes
May 15 dips to 11%3%
Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet issue advisories about flight disruptions caused by Iran’s short‑term airspace closure, underscoring that the impact was limited to specific routes and not a nationwide suspension
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Часто задаваемые вопросы
«Иран закрывает свое воздушное пространство на...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 9 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «30 июня» с 47%, за ним следует «31 мая» с 39%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 47¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 47%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.
На сегодняшний день «Иран закрывает свое воздушное пространство на...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $13.1 million с момента запуска рынка May 1, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.
Чтобы торговать на «Иран закрывает свое воздушное пространство на...?», просмотри 9 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.
Текущий фаворит для «Иран закрывает свое воздушное пространство на...?» — «30 июня» с 47%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 47%. Следующий ближайший исход — «31 мая» с 39%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.
Правила разрешения «Иран закрывает свое воздушное пространство на...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.
Да. Тебе не нужно торговать, чтобы оставаться в курсе. Эта страница служит трекером в реальном времени для «Иран закрывает свое воздушное пространство на...?». Вероятности исходов обновляются в реальном времени по мере поступления новых сделок. Ты можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки и читать раздел комментариев, чтобы узнать мнение других трейдеров. Ты также можешь использовать фильтры временного диапазона на графике, чтобы увидеть, как менялись коэффициенты со временем.
Коэффициенты Polymarket устанавливаются реальными трейдерами, вкладывающими реальные деньги в свои убеждения, что обычно приводит к точным прогнозам. С объёмом торгов $13.1 million по “Иран закрывает свое воздушное пространство на...?” эти цены агрегируют коллективные знания и убеждённость тысяч участников — часто превосходя опросы, экспертные прогнозы и традиционные исследования. Рынки прогнозов, такие как Polymarket, имеют сильный послужной список точности, особенно когда события приближаются к дате разрешения. Например, месячный показатель точности Polymarket составляет 94%. Для получения последних статистических данных о точности прогнозов Polymarket посети страницу точности на Polymarket.
Чтобы совершить первую сделку на «Иран закрывает свое воздушное пространство на...?», зарегистрируй бесплатный аккаунт на Polymarket и пополни его с помощью криптовалюты, кредитной или дебетовой карты или банковского перевода. После пополнения аккаунта вернись на эту страницу, выбери исход, на который хочешь торговать, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты новичок на рынках прогнозов, нажми на ссылку «Как это работает» вверху любой страницы Polymarket для пошагового руководства.
На Polymarket цена каждого исхода представляет подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Цена 47¢ для «30 июня» на рынке «Иран закрывает свое воздушное пространство на...?» означает, что трейдеры коллективно оценивают вероятность того, что «30 июня» будет правильным результатом, примерно в 47%. Если ты купишь акции «Да» по 47¢ и исход окажется правильным, ты получишь $1,00 за акцию — прибыль 53¢ за акцию. Если нет — эти акции будут стоить $0.
Рынок «Иран закрывает свое воздушное пространство на...?» запланирован к разрешению примерно May 31, 2026. Это означает, что торговля остаётся открытой, а коэффициенты продолжат меняться до этой даты. Точные сроки разрешения зависят от момента появления официального результата, как описано в разделе «Правила».
Рынок «Иран закрывает свое воздушное пространство на...?» имеет активное сообщество из 680 комментариев, где трейдеры делятся своим анализом, обсуждают исходы и последние события. Прокрути вниз до раздела комментариев, чтобы прочитать, что думают другие участники. Ты также можешь фильтровать по «Топ-держателям» или проверить вкладку «Активность» для ленты сделок в реальном времени.
Polymarket — крупнейший в мире рынок прогнозов, где ты можешь оставаться в курсе событий и зарабатывать на своих знаниях о реальных событиях. Трейдеры покупают и продают акции на исходы по темам от политики и выборов до криптовалют, финансов, спорта, технологий и культуры, включая рынки вроде «Иран закрывает свое воздушное пространство на...?». Цены отражают вероятности в реальном времени, подкреплённые финансовыми убеждениями, зачастую обеспечивая более быстрые и точные сигналы, чем опросы, эксперты или традиционные исследования.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы