Recent surges in reported fireballs tracked by the American Meteor Society and NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies have highlighted improved asteroid detection networks, yet none have approached the 10-kiloton energy threshold for a major strike. Ongoing monitoring of near-Earth objects through satellite and infrasound systems confirms only minor events this year, consistent with historical low annual probabilities for impacts of this scale. With mid-2026 approaching and no qualifying bolides detected despite heightened activity in Q1, trader consensus reflects confidence in current planetary defense surveillance capabilities and the infrequency of undetected large meteoroids. Key upcoming catalysts include continued close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 and year-end data reviews from global monitoring networks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКрупный удар метеорита (10 тыс. тонн +) в 2026 году?
Крупный удар метеорита (10 тыс. тонн +) в 2026 году?
Да
$154,189 Объем
$154,189 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$154,189 Объем
$154,189 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Recent surges in reported fireballs tracked by the American Meteor Society and NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies have highlighted improved asteroid detection networks, yet none have approached the 10-kiloton energy threshold for a major strike. Ongoing monitoring of near-Earth objects through satellite and infrasound systems confirms only minor events this year, consistent with historical low annual probabilities for impacts of this scale. With mid-2026 approaching and no qualifying bolides detected despite heightened activity in Q1, trader consensus reflects confidence in current planetary defense surveillance capabilities and the infrequency of undetected large meteoroids. Key upcoming catalysts include continued close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 and year-end data reviews from global monitoring networks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Объем
$154,189Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Recent surges in reported fireballs tracked by the American Meteor Society and NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies have highlighted improved asteroid detection networks, yet none have approached the 10-kiloton energy threshold for a major strike. Ongoing monitoring of near-Earth objects through satellite and infrasound systems confirms only minor events this year, consistent with historical low annual probabilities for impacts of this scale. With mid-2026 approaching and no qualifying bolides detected despite heightened activity in Q1, trader consensus reflects confidence in current planetary defense surveillance capabilities and the infrequency of undetected large meteoroids. Key upcoming catalysts include continued close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 and year-end data reviews from global monitoring networks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$154,189Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent surges in reported fireballs tracked by the American Meteor Society and NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies have highlighted improved asteroid detection networks, yet none have approached the 10-kiloton energy threshold for a major strike. Ongoing monitoring of near-Earth objects through satellite and infrasound systems confirms only minor events this year, consistent with historical low annual probabilities for impacts of this scale. With mid-2026 approaching and no qualifying bolides detected despite heightened activity in Q1, trader consensus reflects confidence in current planetary defense surveillance capabilities and the infrequency of undetected large meteoroids. Key upcoming catalysts include continued close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 and year-end data reviews from global monitoring networks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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