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Политика·Глобальные выборы

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

icon for Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Политика·Глобальные выборы

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

40% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ

$11,762 Объем

40% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ

$11,762 Объем

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Latest Infratest dimap Sonntagsfrage poll, released May 7 after fieldwork ending May 5, shows AfD at a record 41% in Sachsen-Anhalt—up 2 points from September 2025—projecting 39 seats in the expected 83-seat Landtag under proportional representation, just 3 short of the 42 needed for absolute majority. This razor-thin margin amid AfD's sustained upward trend in eastern Germany, fueled by voter discontent over federal migration policy and economic stagnation, plus CDU's post-Haseloff leadership transition under Sven Schulze, drives the closely contested trader consensus favoring "No" slightly at 50.5%. Tipping factors include AfD overperformance in turnout-heavy elections, campaign debates ahead of the September 6 vote, or CDU recovery via anti-AfD firewall pledges; volatility persists with undecideds and BSW splinter risks.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Объем
$11,762
Дата окончания
6 сент. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
May 12, 2026, 7:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Latest Infratest dimap Sonntagsfrage poll, released May 7 after fieldwork ending May 5, shows AfD at a record 41% in Sachsen-Anhalt—up 2 points from September 2025—projecting 39 seats in the expected 83-seat Landtag under proportional representation, just 3 short of the 42 needed for absolute majority. This razor-thin margin amid AfD's sustained upward trend in eastern Germany, fueled by voter discontent over federal migration policy and economic stagnation, plus CDU's post-Haseloff leadership transition under Sven Schulze, drives the closely contested trader consensus favoring "No" slightly at 50.5%. Tipping factors include AfD overperformance in turnout-heavy elections, campaign debates ahead of the September 6 vote, or CDU recovery via anti-AfD firewall pledges; volatility persists with undecideds and BSW splinter risks.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Объем
$11,762
Дата окончания
6 сент. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
May 12, 2026, 7:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

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Текущая вероятность для «Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?» составляет 40% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 40%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

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