Ongoing global warming from greenhouse gas emissions keeps monthly temperatures near or above recent records, with 2024–2025 already establishing the warmest years on instrumental record. Early 2026 data show neutral to weak La Niña conditions yielding January through March averages that rank among the top five warmest months ever, per NOAA and Copernicus analyses. Forecasters now project El Niño onset by late 2026, which historically amplifies global means by 0.1–0.2 °C and raises the odds that peak months surpass the prior all-time high. This combination of elevated baseline temperatures and expected ENSO-driven warming underpins the 87 % market-implied probability for at least one record-setting month this year, though model spread around El Niño strength introduces some uncertainty ahead of summer updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли любой месяц 2026 года самым жарким за всю историю?
Будет ли любой месяц 2026 года самым жарким за всю историю?
Да
$136,756 Объем
$136,756 Объем
10 янв. 2027 г.
Да
$136,756 Объем
$136,756 Объем
10 янв. 2027 г.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing global warming from greenhouse gas emissions keeps monthly temperatures near or above recent records, with 2024–2025 already establishing the warmest years on instrumental record. Early 2026 data show neutral to weak La Niña conditions yielding January through March averages that rank among the top five warmest months ever, per NOAA and Copernicus analyses. Forecasters now project El Niño onset by late 2026, which historically amplifies global means by 0.1–0.2 °C and raises the odds that peak months surpass the prior all-time high. This combination of elevated baseline temperatures and expected ENSO-driven warming underpins the 87 % market-implied probability for at least one record-setting month this year, though model spread around El Niño strength introduces some uncertainty ahead of summer updates.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Открытие рынка: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Объем
$136,756Дата окончания
10 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing global warming from greenhouse gas emissions keeps monthly temperatures near or above recent records, with 2024–2025 already establishing the warmest years on instrumental record. Early 2026 data show neutral to weak La Niña conditions yielding January through March averages that rank among the top five warmest months ever, per NOAA and Copernicus analyses. Forecasters now project El Niño onset by late 2026, which historically amplifies global means by 0.1–0.2 °C and raises the odds that peak months surpass the prior all-time high. This combination of elevated baseline temperatures and expected ENSO-driven warming underpins the 87 % market-implied probability for at least one record-setting month this year, though model spread around El Niño strength introduces some uncertainty ahead of summer updates.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Объем
$136,756Дата окончания
10 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing global warming from greenhouse gas emissions keeps monthly temperatures near or above recent records, with 2024–2025 already establishing the warmest years on instrumental record. Early 2026 data show neutral to weak La Niña conditions yielding January through March averages that rank among the top five warmest months ever, per NOAA and Copernicus analyses. Forecasters now project El Niño onset by late 2026, which historically amplifies global means by 0.1–0.2 °C and raises the odds that peak months surpass the prior all-time high. This combination of elevated baseline temperatures and expected ENSO-driven warming underpins the 87 % market-implied probability for at least one record-setting month this year, though model spread around El Niño strength introduces some uncertainty ahead of summer updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы