Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by August core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month above consensus and resilient labor market data, have driven a sharp shift in market-implied odds toward a 25 basis point federal funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. With the target range currently at 3.50%-3.75%, new Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and recent economic resilience have prompted analysts at firms including Morgan Stanley to forecast tightening this year. Treasury yields and fed funds futures reflect these dynamics, while the dot plot’s median projection has moved higher. The immediate catalyst remains today’s decision, with subsequent meetings dependent on incoming CPI, employment reports, and any signs of second-round inflation effects.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$3,677,155 ปริมาณ
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
88%
October Meeting
92%
$3,677,155 ปริมาณ
September Meeting
$1,731,022 ปริมาณ
88%
October Meeting
$986,133 ปริมาณ
92%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by August core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month above consensus and resilient labor market data, have driven a sharp shift in market-implied odds toward a 25 basis point federal funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. With the target range currently at 3.50%-3.75%, new Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and recent economic resilience have prompted analysts at firms including Morgan Stanley to forecast tightening this year. Treasury yields and fed funds futures reflect these dynamics, while the dot plot’s median projection has moved higher. The immediate catalyst remains today’s decision, with subsequent meetings dependent on incoming CPI, employment reports, and any signs of second-round inflation effects.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,677,155วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by August core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month above consensus and resilient labor market data, have driven a sharp shift in market-implied odds toward a 25 basis point federal funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. With the target range currently at 3.50%-3.75%, new Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and recent economic resilience have prompted analysts at firms including Morgan Stanley to forecast tightening this year. Treasury yields and fed funds futures reflect these dynamics, while the dot plot’s median projection has moved higher. The immediate catalyst remains today’s decision, with subsequent meetings dependent on incoming CPI, employment reports, and any signs of second-round inflation effects.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,677,155วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by August core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month above consensus and resilient labor market data, have driven a sharp shift in market-implied odds toward a 25 basis point federal funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. With the target range currently at 3.50%-3.75%, new Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and recent economic resilience have prompted analysts at firms including Morgan Stanley to forecast tightening this year. Treasury yields and fed funds futures reflect these dynamics, while the dot plot’s median projection has moved higher. The immediate catalyst remains today’s decision, with subsequent meetings dependent on incoming CPI, employment reports, and any signs of second-round inflation effects.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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