European governments have maintained a consistent defensive posture since the February 2026 onset of US-Israeli military operations against Iran, issuing joint statements from France, the United Kingdom, and Germany that condemn Iranian missile and drone retaliation while explicitly limiting responses to protecting allied interests and maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Deployments including the French carrier group and UK destroyer HMS Dragon have focused on interception and security without any shift toward offensive strikes on Iranian territory. This approach aligns with domestic political constraints, public opposition to deeper involvement, and a clear preference for diplomatic negotiations over escalation, sustaining the near-certain trader consensus on no direct action by June 30. A major Iranian attack on European assets or bases remains the primary scenario that could prompt reconsideration.