Sustained gray-zone tactics by the People’s Liberation Army, including routine aircraft and coast guard patrols plus drone reconnaissance over Taiwanese exercises in September 2026, have not crossed into open conflict. Beijing continues to prioritize diplomatic engagement ahead of the late-September Trump-Xi summit while reiterating peaceful reunification as the preferred path, even as it refuses to renounce force. Taiwan has responded with enhanced readiness drills, drone integration, and supplemental defense funding, yet official assessments indicate the PLA still lacks the full amphibious and sustainment capacity for a major invasion. These patterns of controlled pressure, internal Chinese military purges, and active bilateral channels underpin traders’ 94.7% consensus that no clash will occur before 2027, though abrupt shifts in summit outcomes or miscalculation during exercises remain potential disruptors.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоТак
5% шанс
$3,426,291 Обс.
$3,426,291 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Так
5% шанс
$3,426,291 Обс.
$3,426,291 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Sustained gray-zone tactics by the People’s Liberation Army, including routine aircraft and coast guard patrols plus drone reconnaissance over Taiwanese exercises in September 2026, have not crossed into open conflict. Beijing continues to prioritize diplomatic engagement ahead of the late-September Trump-Xi summit while reiterating peaceful reunification as the preferred path, even as it refuses to renounce force. Taiwan has responded with enhanced readiness drills, drone integration, and supplemental defense funding, yet official assessments indicate the PLA still lacks the full amphibious and sustainment capacity for a major invasion. These patterns of controlled pressure, internal Chinese military purges, and active bilateral channels underpin traders’ 94.7% consensus that no clash will occur before 2027, though abrupt shifts in summit outcomes or miscalculation during exercises remain potential disruptors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,426,291Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Sustained gray-zone tactics by the People’s Liberation Army, including routine aircraft and coast guard patrols plus drone reconnaissance over Taiwanese exercises in September 2026, have not crossed into open conflict. Beijing continues to prioritize diplomatic engagement ahead of the late-September Trump-Xi summit while reiterating peaceful reunification as the preferred path, even as it refuses to renounce force. Taiwan has responded with enhanced readiness drills, drone integration, and supplemental defense funding, yet official assessments indicate the PLA still lacks the full amphibious and sustainment capacity for a major invasion. These patterns of controlled pressure, internal Chinese military purges, and active bilateral channels underpin traders’ 94.7% consensus that no clash will occur before 2027, though abrupt shifts in summit outcomes or miscalculation during exercises remain potential disruptors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$3,426,291Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Sustained gray-zone tactics by the People’s Liberation Army, including routine aircraft and coast guard patrols plus drone reconnaissance over Taiwanese exercises in September 2026, have not crossed into open conflict. Beijing continues to prioritize diplomatic engagement ahead of the late-September Trump-Xi summit while reiterating peaceful reunification as the preferred path, even as it refuses to renounce force. Taiwan has responded with enhanced readiness drills, drone integration, and supplemental defense funding, yet official assessments indicate the PLA still lacks the full amphibious and sustainment capacity for a major invasion. These patterns of controlled pressure, internal Chinese military purges, and active bilateral channels underpin traders’ 94.7% consensus that no clash will occur before 2027, though abrupt shifts in summit outcomes or miscalculation during exercises remain potential disruptors.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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