Recent forecast models from agencies such as the Met Office project Istanbul highs near 31°C on August 5 under sunny conditions, yet the market assigns the highest implied probability to 29°C at 63.5%. This positioning reflects trader emphasis on the Bosphorus Strait’s sea-breeze moderation and localized afternoon cloud cover, which routinely suppress peak readings by 1–3°C relative to broader regional models. Typical August climatology supports daytime maxima of 28–30°C, with historical data showing frequent 1–2°C shortfalls from raw forecasts due to coastal influences. Resolution hinges on official station measurements, and any last-minute shifts in wind patterns or insolation could adjust the final outcome within the narrow 28–30°C band favored by current consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 5?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 5?
29°C 63%
30°C 28%
28°C 10%
31°C 1.4%
$32,337 Обс.
$32,337 Обс.
Aug 5, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
10%
29°C
63%
30°C
28%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 63%
30°C 28%
28°C 10%
31°C 1.4%
$32,337 Обс.
$32,337 Обс.
Aug 5, 2026
24°C or below
$443 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$447 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$1,234 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$2,603 Обс.
1%
28°C
$7,318 Обс.
10%
29°C
$4,179 Обс.
63%
30°C
$3,654 Обс.
28%
31°C
$3,992 Обс.
1%
32°C
$2,822 Обс.
<1%
33°C
$2,454 Обс.
<1%
34°C or higher
$3,191 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies such as the Met Office project Istanbul highs near 31°C on August 5 under sunny conditions, yet the market assigns the highest implied probability to 29°C at 63.5%. This positioning reflects trader emphasis on the Bosphorus Strait’s sea-breeze moderation and localized afternoon cloud cover, which routinely suppress peak readings by 1–3°C relative to broader regional models. Typical August climatology supports daytime maxima of 28–30°C, with historical data showing frequent 1–2°C shortfalls from raw forecasts due to coastal influences. Resolution hinges on official station measurements, and any last-minute shifts in wind patterns or insolation could adjust the final outcome within the narrow 28–30°C band favored by current consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Обсяг
$32,337Дата завершення
Aug 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies such as the Met Office project Istanbul highs near 31°C on August 5 under sunny conditions, yet the market assigns the highest implied probability to 29°C at 63.5%. This positioning reflects trader emphasis on the Bosphorus Strait’s sea-breeze moderation and localized afternoon cloud cover, which routinely suppress peak readings by 1–3°C relative to broader regional models. Typical August climatology supports daytime maxima of 28–30°C, with historical data showing frequent 1–2°C shortfalls from raw forecasts due to coastal influences. Resolution hinges on official station measurements, and any last-minute shifts in wind patterns or insolation could adjust the final outcome within the narrow 28–30°C band favored by current consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$32,337Дата завершення
Aug 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies such as the Met Office project Istanbul highs near 31°C on August 5 under sunny conditions, yet the market assigns the highest implied probability to 29°C at 63.5%. This positioning reflects trader emphasis on the Bosphorus Strait’s sea-breeze moderation and localized afternoon cloud cover, which routinely suppress peak readings by 1–3°C relative to broader regional models. Typical August climatology supports daytime maxima of 28–30°C, with historical data showing frequent 1–2°C shortfalls from raw forecasts due to coastal influences. Resolution hinges on official station measurements, and any last-minute shifts in wind patterns or insolation could adjust the final outcome within the narrow 28–30°C band favored by current consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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