Recent forecast models from agencies like IMGW and ECMWF indicate peak temperatures in Warsaw on August 5 driven by warm-air advection under a persistent high-pressure ridge, yielding clear skies and strong diurnal heating. Ensemble outputs cluster maxima around 36–38°C, consistent with the market-implied odds favoring 37°C at 41.5% and nearby bins, following June’s record-breaking European heatwave that elevated baseline soil and atmospheric temperatures. Limited cloud cover and light winds further support intensification potential before any evening cooling or minor frontal influence arrives. Updated runs overnight refined probabilities without shifting the central tendency, underscoring trader focus on real-time observational data from Chopin Airport and surrounding stations for final resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 5?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 5?
37°C 41%
36°C 25%
38°C 24%
35°C 4.5%
$43,554 Обс.
$43,554 Обс.
Aug 5, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
2%
35°C
5%
36°C
25%
37°C
41%
38°C
24%
39°C
4%
40°C
1%
41°C or higher
<1%
37°C 41%
36°C 25%
38°C 24%
35°C 4.5%
$43,554 Обс.
$43,554 Обс.
Aug 5, 2026
31°C or below
$6,369 Обс.
<1%
32°C
$5,312 Обс.
1%
33°C
$3,289 Обс.
1%
34°C
$2,647 Обс.
2%
35°C
$5,573 Обс.
5%
36°C
$2,458 Обс.
25%
37°C
$2,048 Обс.
41%
38°C
$5,877 Обс.
24%
39°C
$5,915 Обс.
4%
40°C
$2,677 Обс.
1%
41°C or higher
$1,389 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like IMGW and ECMWF indicate peak temperatures in Warsaw on August 5 driven by warm-air advection under a persistent high-pressure ridge, yielding clear skies and strong diurnal heating. Ensemble outputs cluster maxima around 36–38°C, consistent with the market-implied odds favoring 37°C at 41.5% and nearby bins, following June’s record-breaking European heatwave that elevated baseline soil and atmospheric temperatures. Limited cloud cover and light winds further support intensification potential before any evening cooling or minor frontal influence arrives. Updated runs overnight refined probabilities without shifting the central tendency, underscoring trader focus on real-time observational data from Chopin Airport and surrounding stations for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Обсяг
$43,554Дата завершення
Aug 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like IMGW and ECMWF indicate peak temperatures in Warsaw on August 5 driven by warm-air advection under a persistent high-pressure ridge, yielding clear skies and strong diurnal heating. Ensemble outputs cluster maxima around 36–38°C, consistent with the market-implied odds favoring 37°C at 41.5% and nearby bins, following June’s record-breaking European heatwave that elevated baseline soil and atmospheric temperatures. Limited cloud cover and light winds further support intensification potential before any evening cooling or minor frontal influence arrives. Updated runs overnight refined probabilities without shifting the central tendency, underscoring trader focus on real-time observational data from Chopin Airport and surrounding stations for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$43,554Дата завершення
Aug 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies like IMGW and ECMWF indicate peak temperatures in Warsaw on August 5 driven by warm-air advection under a persistent high-pressure ridge, yielding clear skies and strong diurnal heating. Ensemble outputs cluster maxima around 36–38°C, consistent with the market-implied odds favoring 37°C at 41.5% and nearby bins, following June’s record-breaking European heatwave that elevated baseline soil and atmospheric temperatures. Limited cloud cover and light winds further support intensification potential before any evening cooling or minor frontal influence arrives. Updated runs overnight refined probabilities without shifting the central tendency, underscoring trader focus on real-time observational data from Chopin Airport and surrounding stations for final resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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