Global Volcanic Explosivity Index records show VEI ≥4 events, defined by at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and eruption plumes exceeding 10 kilometers, occur at a long-term average rate of roughly 0.6 per year. Through mid-May 2026, Smithsonian Institution and USGS monitoring confirms zero such eruptions amid 47 smaller confirmed events worldwide, keeping the zero-outcome market at the forefront. Ongoing unrest at systems including Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira has produced only sub-threshold ash plumes and lava activity without the required ejecta volume. Unpredictable magmatic recharge could still trigger escalation before year-end, but current observations align with the historical pattern of infrequent large eruptions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоСкільки великих вивержень вулканів (VEI ≥4) у 2026 році?
Скільки великих вивержень вулканів (VEI ≥4) у 2026 році?
0 61%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,079,772 Обс.
$1,079,772 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0
61%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 61%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,079,772 Обс.
$1,079,772 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$477,410 Обс.
61%
1
$260,299 Обс.
35%
2
$32,241 Обс.
4%
3
$26,240 Обс.
1%
4
$24,765 Обс.
<1%
5+
$258,817 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Global Volcanic Explosivity Index records show VEI ≥4 events, defined by at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and eruption plumes exceeding 10 kilometers, occur at a long-term average rate of roughly 0.6 per year. Through mid-May 2026, Smithsonian Institution and USGS monitoring confirms zero such eruptions amid 47 smaller confirmed events worldwide, keeping the zero-outcome market at the forefront. Ongoing unrest at systems including Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira has produced only sub-threshold ash plumes and lava activity without the required ejecta volume. Unpredictable magmatic recharge could still trigger escalation before year-end, but current observations align with the historical pattern of infrequent large eruptions.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,079,772Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Global Volcanic Explosivity Index records show VEI ≥4 events, defined by at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and eruption plumes exceeding 10 kilometers, occur at a long-term average rate of roughly 0.6 per year. Through mid-May 2026, Smithsonian Institution and USGS monitoring confirms zero such eruptions amid 47 smaller confirmed events worldwide, keeping the zero-outcome market at the forefront. Ongoing unrest at systems including Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira has produced only sub-threshold ash plumes and lava activity without the required ejecta volume. Unpredictable magmatic recharge could still trigger escalation before year-end, but current observations align with the historical pattern of infrequent large eruptions.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,079,772Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Global Volcanic Explosivity Index records show VEI ≥4 events, defined by at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and eruption plumes exceeding 10 kilometers, occur at a long-term average rate of roughly 0.6 per year. Through mid-May 2026, Smithsonian Institution and USGS monitoring confirms zero such eruptions amid 47 smaller confirmed events worldwide, keeping the zero-outcome market at the forefront. Ongoing unrest at systems including Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira has produced only sub-threshold ash plumes and lava activity without the required ejecta volume. Unpredictable magmatic recharge could still trigger escalation before year-end, but current observations align with the historical pattern of infrequent large eruptions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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