Current official forecasts from MetService-aligned models and international guidance indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on August 29 will likely fall in the 8–12°C range, reflecting a cooler post-frontal airmass with variable northwest winds and periods of clear skies that support radiative cooling after sunset. The lowest reading typically occurs near dawn (around 6–8 a.m. local time) when surface heat loss peaks under reduced cloud cover. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs, combined with uncertainty in exact wind speeds and boundary-layer mixing, produce the market's tight clustering around 8–12°C outcomes, as stronger winds or residual cloud would limit the drop while calmer, clearer conditions could push toward the lower end of that band. Historical August minima average near 9°C, providing climatological context for trader positioning ahead of final observational data.