Mauro Mendes (União Brasil), the former governor who resigned to run, holds a consistent lead in recent voter intention surveys for Mato Grosso’s two Senate seats, placing him as the trader favorite for first place. Multiple candidates including Janaína Riva (MDB), Carlos Fávaro (PSD), José Medeiros (PL), and Pedro Taques (PSB) trail in consolidated first- and second-preference polling, while a long list of additional names fragments the field. A recent Federal Police operation and related allegations have introduced short-term uncertainty, though Mendes has dismissed them as politically motivated and polls have shown limited immediate movement. With roughly two months until the October election, high undecided shares, overlapping party strategies, and the mechanics of voters selecting two senators continue to keep the outcome for top individual vote-getter closely contested among the leading contenders.