Trader consensus reflects a 91% implied probability against a US Congress stock trading ban before 2027, driven by the stalled progress of multiple bills in the 119th Congress despite early bipartisan momentum. The Republican-led Stop Insider Trading Act (H.R. 7008), introduced by Rep. Steil in January 2026 and advanced on party lines from the House Administration Committee, reached the Union Calendar in February but missed its promised first-quarter floor vote due to competing Democratic proposals expanding scope to the executive branch, leadership deprioritization, and insufficient discharge petition signatures. No Senate markups or further actions have followed March introductions like Sens. Cassidy and Ricketts' version, with recent focus on other priorities like prediction market restrictions for members, leaving scant time before the lame-duck session ends.