Skip to main content
icon for Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
Світ·Канада

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

icon for Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
Світ·Канада

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

7% шанс
Polymarket

$253,859 Обс.

7% шанс
Polymarket

$253,859 Обс.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polling and the structure of Alberta's October 19, 2026 referendum explain the 93%+ trader consensus against an independence vote occurring this year. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced the multi-question referendum in May 2026, including one item on whether the province should begin the constitutional process toward a future binding separation referendum. Ipsos and other surveys show only 19% support for that option, with outright separation support at roughly 18%—down from 28% earlier in the year. Citizen petitions gathered hundreds of thousands of signatures but faced court challenges from First Nations groups over treaty rights and procedural issues. Smith has stated her personal preference to remain in Canada, and no direct independence ballot or binding secession process is scheduled for 2026. These factors—limited polling support, legal hurdles, and the preliminary nature of the October questions—align with traders pricing a decisive "no" outcome.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$253,859
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polling and the structure of Alberta's October 19, 2026 referendum explain the 93%+ trader consensus against an independence vote occurring this year. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced the multi-question referendum in May 2026, including one item on whether the province should begin the constitutional process toward a future binding separation referendum. Ipsos and other surveys show only 19% support for that option, with outright separation support at roughly 18%—down from 28% earlier in the year. Citizen petitions gathered hundreds of thousands of signatures but faced court challenges from First Nations groups over treaty rights and procedural issues. Smith has stated her personal preference to remain in Canada, and no direct independence ballot or binding secession process is scheduled for 2026. These factors—limited polling support, legal hurdles, and the preliminary nature of the October questions—align with traders pricing a decisive "no" outcome.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$253,859
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Пов'язане

icon for Will Alberta join the US?

Will Alberta join the US?

2%
icon for Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?

Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?

5%
icon for Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?

Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?

17%

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 7% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 7¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 7%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?» згенерував $253.9K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Jan 30, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?» — 7% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 7% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.