The surge in euro-area inflation to 3% in April, driven by energy price spikes linked to the Iran conflict, has shifted trader expectations toward ECB tightening in 2026. Official projections now place 2026 inflation near 2.6%, prompting Bloomberg and IMF forecasts for two 25-basis-point hikes by year-end. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate at 2% after its April 30 meeting but signaled readiness for action, with hawkish remarks from members including Schnabel and Kazimir highlighting risks of second-round effects. Economists surveyed in early May aligned on June and September increases, aligning with the market's 92% implied probability that at least one hike will occur before December. The next policy decision on June 11 remains the immediate focus.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtECB rate hike in 2026?
ECB rate hike in 2026?
$114,365 KL.
$114,365 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$114,365 KL.
$114,365 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The surge in euro-area inflation to 3% in April, driven by energy price spikes linked to the Iran conflict, has shifted trader expectations toward ECB tightening in 2026. Official projections now place 2026 inflation near 2.6%, prompting Bloomberg and IMF forecasts for two 25-basis-point hikes by year-end. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate at 2% after its April 30 meeting but signaled readiness for action, with hawkish remarks from members including Schnabel and Kazimir highlighting risks of second-round effects. Economists surveyed in early May aligned on June and September increases, aligning with the market's 92% implied probability that at least one hike will occur before December. The next policy decision on June 11 remains the immediate focus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$114,365Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The surge in euro-area inflation to 3% in April, driven by energy price spikes linked to the Iran conflict, has shifted trader expectations toward ECB tightening in 2026. Official projections now place 2026 inflation near 2.6%, prompting Bloomberg and IMF forecasts for two 25-basis-point hikes by year-end. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate at 2% after its April 30 meeting but signaled readiness for action, with hawkish remarks from members including Schnabel and Kazimir highlighting risks of second-round effects. Economists surveyed in early May aligned on June and September increases, aligning with the market's 92% implied probability that at least one hike will occur before December. The next policy decision on June 11 remains the immediate focus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$114,365Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The surge in euro-area inflation to 3% in April, driven by energy price spikes linked to the Iran conflict, has shifted trader expectations toward ECB tightening in 2026. Official projections now place 2026 inflation near 2.6%, prompting Bloomberg and IMF forecasts for two 25-basis-point hikes by year-end. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate at 2% after its April 30 meeting but signaled readiness for action, with hawkish remarks from members including Schnabel and Kazimir highlighting risks of second-round effects. Economists surveyed in early May aligned on June and September increases, aligning with the market's 92% implied probability that at least one hike will occur before December. The next policy decision on June 11 remains the immediate focus.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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