Markets shrug off DOJ probe as Fed independence debate continues

No change rises to 98%2%

Despite ongoing DOJ investigations into Fed Chair Powell, markets remained confident in the Fed's independence and its economic-driven policy decisions. This sentiment contributed to the high market probability of no change in the June interest rate decision.

Fed’s June meeting expected to hold rates steady as political pressure mounts

No change rises to 98%2%

Analysts cited growing political pressure from the White House and the Supreme Court case over Fed independence, leading the market to near‑certainly price in no change, with the No‑change contract reaching 98 % by early May.

DOJ prosecutors attempt to access Fed building amid ongoing investigation

No change rises to 96%3%

Federal prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Fed's headquarters construction site related to the ongoing investigation into the renovation project. Despite the legal scrutiny, the Fed maintained its stance on rate decisions based on economic conditions, supporting market expectations of no rate change.

Fed signals likely to keep rates steady amid inflation and labor market concerns

No change rises to 95%2%

Ahead of the June meeting, Fed officials indicated a preference to hold rates steady to assess economic conditions, balancing stubborn inflation with a slowing labor market. This cautious stance led markets to strongly favor the no change outcome for the June 2026 Fed decision.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair

25 bps increase jumps to 30%5%

The nomination suggested a possible shift toward more aggressive rate cuts, briefly reviving interest in the 25‑bps increase contract before the market re‑evaluated the likelihood of a hold.

Fed expected to keep rates unchanged as Chair Powell emphasizes economic basis

No change rises to 93%4%

Ahead of the June meeting, Fed Chair Powell signaled the Fed's intention to keep rates steady, focusing on economic data rather than political pressure amid ongoing investigations. This reassured markets, driving the probability of no change to near certainty.

Fed minutes show most officials want more inflation progress before further cuts

No change jumps to 96%6%

March minutes revealed that a majority of Fed participants still see inflation as too high, causing the market to further consolidate on the No‑change outcome, moving its price from 90 % to 96 %.

Fed minutes show split over further rate cuts, many officials favor holding steady

No change surges to 62%16%

Released minutes from the March meeting revealed that most policymakers preferred to keep the policy rate unchanged, pushing the market further toward the no‑change outcome.

Fed releases statement that it will likely keep rates unchanged at June meeting

No change jumps to 98%6%

A formal Fed communication reaffirmed a hold stance, delivering a decisive boost to the No change contract and driving other contracts toward zero.

Supreme Court agrees to hear case on attempted firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook

No change dips to 46%2%

The high court’s decision to consider the Trump administration’s effort to remove Governor Cook signaled potential shifts in Fed board composition, reinforcing market expectations of a steady rate stance.

Fed officials signal willingness to keep rates steady amid stubborn inflation

No change jumps to 90%5%

A statement from the Fed after its February meeting emphasized that inflation remains above target, reinforcing expectations of no change and pushing the No‑change price from 85 % to 90 %.

Economic data shows slowing hiring and persistent inflation

No change jumps to 37%6%

Reports indicated that hiring slowed in December 2025 despite Fed rate cuts, while inflation remained above target. This mixed economic data complicated the Fed's decision-making, supporting market expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady at the June meeting to balance inflation control and labor market support.

Justice Department subpoenas the Federal Reserve over Chairman Powell’s testimony

25 bps decrease jumps to 45%7%

The unprecedented subpoena heightened political pressure on the Fed, causing traders to price in a higher likelihood of a rate‑cut, which briefly lifted the 25‑bps decrease contract before the market re‑asserted confidence in a hold.

Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

No change jumps to 56%6%

The Supreme Court considered the legality of President Trump's attempt to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, a case seen as a test of the Fed's independence. The court's apparent inclination to allow Cook to remain reinforced expectations that the Fed would maintain its current policy stance, supporting the no change outcome.

Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook

No change jumps to 62%6%

The Supreme Court considered President Trump's unprecedented effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a move seen as an attempt to influence Fed policy. The court's decision to allow Cook to remain temporarily underscored the judiciary's role in preserving Fed independence, which reassured markets and maintained the high probability of no rate change.

Trump announces plan to name Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair

No change jumps to 50%5%

President Trump announced his intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, signaling potential changes in Fed leadership. Warsh's nomination raised questions about future rate policy, but his cautious stance and the divided Fed committee suggested limited immediate impact on rate cuts, reinforcing market expectations for no change in June.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents

No change jumps to 92%8%

Bessent’s proposal signaled a possible shift in Fed governance that could give the White House more leverage over rate decisions, weakening confidence in any rate‑cut scenario and further boosting No change.

Fed Chair Powell rebukes DOJ probe as political pressure

No change jumps to 45%8%

Powell issued a rare video statement condemning the DOJ investigation as a pretext to undermine the Fed’s independence in setting interest rates. This public defense reassured markets about the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions, supporting the no change outcome in the market.

Supreme Court agrees to hear case on President Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook

25 bps decrease drops to 38%12%

The pending legal battle raised concerns that the Fed could lose independence, increasing the perceived risk of a politically‑driven rate cut and pulling price support from the 25‑bps decrease contract.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as Fed chair

No change surges to 85%23%

Trump’s nomination signaled a possible shift toward a more dovish Fed, prompting a further rise in the No‑change price (62 % → 85 %) as markets priced in political resistance to rate cuts.

DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell

No change rises to 37%4%

The Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell related to his testimony about the Fed's $2.5 billion building renovation. Powell condemned the probe as politically motivated to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, raising concerns about Fed independence and causing market uncertainty about future rate decisions.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell rebukes DOJ criminal investigation as political pressure

No change jumps to 56%8%

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell publicly condemned the Department of Justice's criminal investigation into his testimony about the Fed's building renovations, calling it a pretext to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates. This event highlighted political tensions but reinforced the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions, supporting market expectations of no rate change.

DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell

No change rises to 48%4%

The Justice Department announced a probe into Powell’s testimony on the Fed’s building renovation, raising concerns about political pressure on monetary policy and boosting confidence that rates would stay unchanged.

U.S. inflation rises in November, dampening hopes for a rate cut

No change drops to 44%13%

Core CPI increased 2.8% YoY in November, signaling persistent price pressures and leading traders to expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its December meeting.

Justice Department ends criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell

No change surges to 62%18%

The DOJ’s decision to drop its investigation removed a major political risk, leading traders to expect the Fed to maintain its current stance, which lifted the No‑change contract from 44 % to 62 % over the next week.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by 25 basis points amid economic concerns

No change jumps to 48%7%

At the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to about 3.6%, the third cut in 2025, reflecting concerns about a weakening labor market and economic uncertainty. This move initially supported expectations for no further immediate cuts, influencing the market to price in no change for the June 2026 meeting.

Fed cuts interest rate by 25 bps amid divided officials

25 bps decrease jumps to 55%5%

At the December 9-10 meeting, the Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points, the third cut in 2025, but the decision was closely contested with dissenters favoring no change or a larger cut. This highlighted uncertainty about the Fed's next moves and influenced market expectations for the June 2026 meeting, initially supporting the possibility of rate cuts.

Fed officials debate a third quarter‑point rate cut at December meeting

No change jumps to 84%13%

Minutes released showed a split vote (9‑3) on a quarter‑point cut, highlighting internal dissent and suggesting the cut could be fragile, which nudged the market toward No change.